So who are the real Oregon Ducks? Are they the wrecking crew that dominated Arizona State last Saturday? Or are they the team that gave up more than 100 fourth-quarter rushing yards to Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson on Sept. 16? Maybe it all depends on which uniform the No. 11 Ducks (4-0) are wearing. Much of the time this team looks like it can win the Pac-10, but not always. Ducks fans should hope their team figures it out this weekend, when they travel to Berkeley to take on No. 16 Cal (4-1). In anticipation of Saturday, I've been thinking about Oregon a lot. There's much to like, but there are also some major holes. With the Pac-10 race as wide open as it's been in four years, the Ducks have a legitimate shot to win at least a share of the conference title and go to a BCS bowl. Will that happen? I'm not sure yet. Here are five reasons Oregon could win the conference and four why it may not.
Five reasons Oregon will win the Pac-10
1. Offense, offense, offense. How good are the Ducks when they have the ball? The offensive numbers are impressive and bespeak a relentless efficiency: Oregon ranks sixth in the nation in scoring offense (40.3 points per game), eighth in rushing offense (227.5), 18th in passing (259.5) and fourth in total offense (497.0). Only three teams in the country are better on third down -- the Ducks are converting 57.7 percent -- and they have scored on 21 of 23 trips inside the red zone. In a little more than a year, coach Mike Bellotti's spread attack has developed into one of the most balanced in the country, with an almost perfect 50-50 run-pass ratio. This team is capable of winning a shootout (something I think they'll have to do at least once this season ... but more on that later).
2. The Big Yellow (and Green) Line. The success of the offense starts up front, where Oregon has been dominant. The starting five of Enoka Lucas, Paluna Ma Sun, Geoff Schwartz, Josh Tschirgi and Max Unger get the maximum stretch out of their space-age unis, averaging 6-foot-5 and 317 pounds. They have been playing together since early last season, and it shows. Oregon's rushing offense tops the Pac-10, something that hasn't happened since 1955. Even more telling is that the line has allowed only one sack this season.
3. Two for the show. Few backfields are as dangerous as Oregon's. Dennis Dixon arrived in Eugene with a reputation as a running quarterback, but the junior has been a revelation as a passer. Filling in for injured starter Kellen Clemens during the last four games of 2005, Dixon completed 66.3 percent of his passes. This season the 6-4, 200-pound Dixon is completing nearly 65 percent, with six touchdowns and two interceptions. He's not running nearly as much these days because of the play of sophomore tailback Jonathan Stewart, who's averaging 114.2 yards per game and an eye-popping 7.9 yards per carry despite being hobbled by a gimpy ankle that limited him to only one carry against Fresno State in Week 2. Rated the top running back in the country when he signed with Oregon in February 2005, the 5-11, 234-pound bruiser held a coming-out party during the Ducks' wild 34-33 win over Oklahoma last month, rushing 23 times for 144 yards and a touchdown.
4. Firm footing. If any of their remaining games are decided by field goals, the Ducks are in good hands -- or, rather, feet. Senior Paul Martinez, who handled punting duties as a freshman, is 7 for 9 this season, with one of his two misses coming from beyond 50 yards. He led the country in field goals per game a year ago and is 26 of 33 in his career.
5. It's their time. If there were ever a year for the Ducks to grab at least a share of the Pac-10 title, this is it. Oregon fans have to be heartened by the closeness of the USC-Washington State game (while simultaneously wincing at the thought of their own trip to Pullman in two weeks). For the first time in three years the Trojans seem beatable. And who knows which Cal team the Ducks will see in Berkeley this Saturday? Will it be the overmatched squad that was so badly beaten in Tennessee on Sept. 2? Or the high-powered offensive machine that Cal fans have seen ever since? The odds are good that Oregon can win one, if not both, of its next two games. And it's not as if winning the league title is unprecedented: The Ducks, in 2001, were the last team to win the Pac-10 title outright before USC began its run of dominance.
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