SF Chronicle: BCS computers love USC

Jake Curtis

The 2006 Bowl Championship Series standings were released for the first time Sunday, prompting some to draw grand conclusions from this opening list and others simply dismissed it as being insignificant at this time.  This week's six Rs begin with Reaction to the initial BCS standings.

-- History says it's a strong possibility that Ohio State, No. 1 in the current BCS standings, or USC, which is No. 2, will play in the national championship game. In each of the past seven seasons, either the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the season's first BCS standings ended up playing in the national title game.

-- The computers love USC, which is ranked No. 1 in five of the six computers used by the BCS. It is noteworthy that those computers do not use margin of victory in their calculations. The Sagarin ratings have the Trojans No. 1 in its rankings used for the BCS standings, but they are No. 4 in the Sagarin ratings when adjusted for margin of victory.

-- At No. 10, Cal remains in the BCS picture. If USC plays in the national title game, the Bears need to be ranked in the top 14 to be eligible for a Rose Bowl berth.

-- Nov. 18 is when everything will get clearer: Michigan plays at Ohio State and USC hosts Cal.

Rolling along: Cal's modus operandi has been to overwhelm opponents at the outset. The Bears' offense has been shut out in the second half in three of Cal's six victories, and the Bears outscored only two of those six foes after halftime. No matter. Cal has outscored opponents 192-63 in the first half of its six wins. Then the Bears let the clock run and rely on their defense. Cal has yielded only 14 fourth-quarter points this season.

Resemblance: Every time a highlight of West Virginia's Steve Slaton is shown, you'd swear it was Marshawn Lynch. For one thing, the uniforms and helmets of Cal and West Virginia are almost identical, right down to most of the different color combinations of pants and jerseys. Both Slaton and Lynch wear No. 10, and they are about the same height (Slaton is 5-foot-10, Lynch 5-11). Both have a penchant for big plays, with Slaton averaging 7.1 yards a carry and Lynch 6.8. They both have been bothered by ankle injuries. If Cal and West Virginia meet in a bowl game, which is not impossible, it could get spooky.

Read the entire article here.