Covers.com: BYU 35, Cal 28

Las Vegas Bowl preview and prediction 

 

By Bill Hughes         

BYU vs. California

The line : California is listed as a 7 ½-point favorite. At some sportsbooks, that number has been bet up from 6 or 6 ½.

The total: The over/under is set at 62 ½. Cal’s last three games have played under, while BYU’s last six have played over.

For Cal seniors, the scars from last season’s BCS slight remain. Despite finishing 10-1 (their only defeat at the hands of the eventual national champion USC Trojans), the Bears did not receive the Rose Bowl invite they felt they deserved.

Now, Cal enters the Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl showdown with the Brigham Young Cougars at Sam Boyd Stadium on Dec. 20 with something to prove. The Golden Bears (7-4, 4-4) are the youngest team in the Pac-10. They finished in fourth place after a hot start, winning its first five games, but then dropping four of the next six. They faded quickly against the top three teams in the conference - USC, Oregon and UCLA - and they lost another disappointing game to Oregon State. The Bears lost three of those four Pac-10 tilts by a touchdown or less, including the loss to UCLA when they held a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter.  BYU (6-5, 5-3) got off to a slow start, but finished in second place in the Mountain West Conference on the strength of five wins over its last seven games. BYU and Cal, the eighth and 26th-ranked scoring offenses in the nation, both sport high-octane offenses that average more than 32 points per game each. The Cougars rely on their passing attack to get the job done, while Cal looks to its 10th-ranked running game to light up the scoreboard.  Cal’s loss of starting QB Nate Longshore for the season in the opening game was patched up by a combination of a dual threat in the backfield. Running back Marshawn Lynch surpassed the 1,000-yard plateau, while tailback Justin Forsett needs only 38 yards to join Lynch at that milestone.

The potent Cougars offense thrives on mixing up the run and pass by keeping defenders guessing. BYU will field both a 3,000-yard passer in QB John Beck and a 1,000-yard rusher in tailback Curtis Brown. Beck has thrown for 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while Brown has punched in 14 TDs on the ground. Cal fullback-turned-quarterback Steve Levy has limited experience in the pocket. Levy was pressed into action when the Bears coaching staff finally saw enough from underachieving junior quarterback Joseph Ayoob . Ayoob completed only 49.2 percent of his pass attempts, compiling 1,707 yards with 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on the season. This game marks the first appearance for both clubs in the Las Vegas Bowl. BYU will try to win its first bowl game since 1996. Covers.com prediction: BYU 35, California 28