2005 Las Vegas BowlCalifornia (7-4) vs. BYU (6-5)Dec. 22, 8 p.m. ET, Las Vegas, NV
The Las Vegas Bowl has a history of being a statement bowl for the Mountain West. Wyoming beat UCLA last year, Utah beat USC in 2001, and UNLV beat Arkansas in 2000, and BYU hopes to use this game as a stepping stone to next year. It's back to the old days of BYU football with lots of offense, suspect defense, and unlike the last few seasons under Gary Crowton, a bowl game for the first time since 2001. Bronco Mendenhall has made a major point to restore some of the traditions and success of the Cougar program, and he has come through with a solid first season winning three of his final four games putting the fire back in the BYU faithful.
The team came this close to a really, really, big season with overtime losses to TCU and Utah the difference between the Las Vegas Bowl and a Mountain West championship, but this was a great first step with several decent wins, but no eye-popping ones. While beating New Mexico and Colorado State was nice, it wasn't like beating a name team, and BYU had its chances against Boston College and Notre Dame. Unfortunately, it didn't come close against either.
Cal likely won't suffer from overconfidence after losing four of its final six games, and with memories of last year's Holiday Bowl pasting by Texas Tech still fresh. Jeff Tedford's club had the talent to build on a great 2004 and become a major player in the Pac 10 race, but inconsistent quarterback play proved costly in close losses to UCLA, Oregon State and Oregon. If Joe Ayoob had been a little bit better, the Bears would've been 9-0 going into the USC game, and now they're testing out a new quarterback. If you're looking for a defensive slugfest, this won't be the bowl game for you. Cal's last two bowl games under Tedford were shootouts (45-31 Texas Tech win in last year's Holiday Bowl, and 52-49 Cal win over Virginia Tech in the 2003 Insight Bowl), while BYU averages 33.45 points per game.
Players to watch: Cal's Ayoob came into this season with a ton of hype from the JUCO ranks, but he lost in a battle with Nathan Longshore for the starting job, and started his season off 0-for-10 against Sacramento State when Longshore got knocked out for the season. With too many misfires and too many interceptions, including 11 in his last four games, Ayoob was benched for junior Steve Levy, who was used a little bit at fullback early in his career before settling into the backup quarterback job. While he doesn't have the skills of Ayoob, or former Cal QB Aaron Rodgers, he's a smart passer with an accurate arm. After leading the Bears to a 27-3 win over Stanford, he's the man for the job ... for now.
The key to the Cal attack is sophomore RB Marshawn Lynch, who ran for 1,052 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, despite missing two games with an injured hand. He flew a bit under the radar with Pac 10 stars Reggie Bush, Jerome Harrison, Maurice Drew and LenDale White hogging the running back spotlight, but he was fantastic and should be in the mix for All-America honors next year with his blend of speed and toughness.
For BYU, QB John Beck has blossomed into a top-flight passer putting up huge, BYU-quarterback-like numbers with 3,357 yards and 24 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. He got sharper as the season went on going without an interception in his final three games. He relies too much on the deep throw at times and he can be streaky, but he's a great decision maker with a good arm.
Why Cal might win: If BYU becomes one dimensional. Oddly enough, BYU either lost or had some of its toughest battles when Beck had his biggest yardage games. He threw for 517 yards and five touchdown passes in the loss to TCU. There wasn't a problem against Air Force when Beck threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns, but the Cougars were 2-4 when Beck threw for over 300 yards. That's partially because the offense had play catch-up, but it's also because Curtis Brown and the ground game weren't working. It'll be tempting for the Bears to get into a firefight and bomb away on the porous Cougar secondary, but the more control it has with its own ground game, the better.
Why BYU might win: It makes Steve Levy win the game. The Cal receivers should be able to blow past the BYU defensive backs, but there's still a question whether or not Levy, or even Ayoob, can carry the team if needed. BYU must sell-out to stop Lynch and the Cal ground game to have any chance of keeping 40+ points off the board, but that's easier said than done against the fantastic Bear offensive line. If Cal rushes for over 200 yards, this might not be pretty.
What will happen: Cal won't let down at all. Expect Lynch to rush for 150 yards and Levy to have an efficient game with two big, well-timed strikes to keep the Cougars at arm's length. However, don't be shocked if the Cal passing game has a meltdown and BYU takes advantage.
Line: California -5.5
Fearless Prediction: California 45 ... BYU 23
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