SF Chronicle: What's at stake

Cal and Stanford both have a chance at bowl berths and both could be left out of the bowl picture altogether, and the result of today’s Big Game will play a major role in determining the confusing possibilities. Even the Auburn-Alabama, Michigan-Ohio State and Virginia-Virginia Tech games could affect where Cal and Stanford wind up.

IF STANFORD  WINS

-- It would be assured of a bowl berth and would probably go the Insight Bowl to play a Big East team, probably Rutgers. The only way a Stanford win would not put the Cardinal in the Insight Bowl is if the Pac-10 gets two teams into BCS games (USC’s a near lock, UCLA and Oregon are longshots). If that happens, Stanford would go to the Sun Bowl against a Big Ten team, probably Iowa or Minnesota.

-- Cal’s most likely destination would be the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, against a Mountain West team, probably Colorado State. But Cal’s situation will be influenced by today’s Oregon-Oregon State game, Friday’s Arizona-Arizona State game and the Dec. 3 USC-UCLA game. If ASU and Oregon State lose, a 6-5 Cal team probably would wind up in the Las Vegas Bowl, probably against BYU. If either ASU or Oregon State wins, 6-5 Cal would head to the Emerald Bowl. But if both ASU and Oregon State win and Cal loses today, Cal would be seventh in the Pac-10 with only six teams guaranteed bowls. That would end the Bears’ season, unless they’re picked by one of the bowls that needs a team, like the Fort Worth Bowl or the Poinsettia Bowl. The Pac-10 getting a second BCS berth would ensure the 6-5 Bears a bowl berth, too.

IF CAL WINS

-- The Bears could go to any one of three bowls, the Sun, Insight or Las Vegas, with the Las Vegas Bowl being the most likely. That would assume ASU beats Arizona and finishes tied in the Pac-10 standings with Cal, making the Sun Devils the likely choice of the Phoenixbased Insight Bowl, which picks ahead of the Las Vegas Bowl and could take ASU even though Cal would have a better overall record. If ASU loses, it’s probably the Insight Bowl for the 7-4 Bears, who could even jump into the Sun Bowl if ASU loses and the Pac-10 get a second BCS team.

-- Stanford would have to win next week against Notre Dame to become bowl eligible, and probably would go to the Emerald Bowl if ASU wins, or the Las Vegas Bowl if ASU loses. The Emerald Bowl certainly would take Stanford over Oregon State if the two finished tied at 6-5 overall, 4-4 in conference. A Stanford win over the Irish would also enhance the Pac-10’s chances of getting a second BCS team, so Stanford could land in the Insight Bowl if it loses today but wins next week. A Stanford win next week probably would land 7-4 Cal in the Sun Bowl if either Oregon or UCLA wins its final game and two of the following three teams (Michigan, Virginia and Auburn) win today. Confused enough?