Odds are very much against faltering Cal pulling off another upset of top-ranked USC
By Jay Heater
BERKELEY - Former Cal place-kicker Tyler Fredrickson, whose 38-yard field goal split the uprights for a triple-overtime, 34-31 victory over USC in 2003 -- the Trojans' last defeat -- thought he was a pretty popular guy. "The Best Damn Sports Show" had recruited Fredrickson to discuss Cal's game against No. 1 USC on Saturday at Memorial Stadium. The theme? Can Cal do it again? Then came the Bears' 27-20 overtime loss last Saturday at Oregon. Fredrickson got a phone call.
"They decided not to do it," he said of his TV appearance. "Part of it had to do with Cal's loss. I heard that "College GameDay" (ESPN) was thinking about doing the game. I would imagine that they are not coming, either." A game that might have developed into the biggest ever played in Berkeley has fizzled now that Cal has suffered three close losses in its last four games. Now 6-3 and unranked, the Bears pale in comparison to a team that is being compared to the greatest college teams ever. Can Cal do it again? The overwhelming opinion: no.
At least that is the message sent by the major media outlets, and oddsmakers. Nobody other than Cal fans, and players and coaches from the two teams, seems to think the Bears have a chance. USC, which has won 31 consecutive games and is going for an unprecedented third straight national championship, is an 181/2-point favorite. It doesn't matter that Cal was the last team to beat the Trojans or that the Bears lost last season's game 23-17 only after failing to score from first-and-goal at USC's 9-yard line in the final two minutes. "We know that Cal is a well-coached, oiled machine," said USC coach Pete Carroll. "They have a great system on defense, and, on offense they have one of the top running teams in the nation. The only difference between our teams is our experience at quarterback." That difference is huge. USC (9-0, 6-0) lines up reigning Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart at quarterback, and he is putting together another outstanding season. Leinart is the top-rated quarterback in the Pac-10 and has thrown 23 touchdowns compared to six interceptions. He has completed 66.8 percent of his passes, the best in the conference. At the other end of the spectrum is Cal's Joe Ayoob, a first-year starter after transferring from City College of San Francisco. Ayoob has taken his lumps while learning on the job, completing 49.4 percent of his passes. He ranks ninth in the conference in passing efficiency. Of course, Leinart has plenty of help. At tailback, he has Reggie Bush, who appears to be the front-runner for this year's Heisman Trophy, and LenDale White. Both average more than 100 yards rushing per game. Leinart's main targets are Dwayne Jarrett (14 touchdown receptions) and Steve Smith (19.6 yards per catch). "You talk about all those guys, but their offensive line is so physical," Cal coach Jeff Tedford said. "You watch Leinart back there, and he looks so poised because he has time to stand around." Tedford has studied around the clock, trying to find a way to crack college football's toughest nut. He has watched the Trojans' every move on the video screen. "We've watched just about everything that they've done," he said. "When people have been successful against them, it's because somebody jumped over the top of a corner and made a play." Studying the USC-Oregon game didn't bring any comfort to Tedford. The Ducks held a 13-10 halftime lead before getting blitzed in a 45-13 loss. "They stopped themselves," Tedford said of the Trojans. "They had a couple of drops in the first half, and when they were going in for a score, they had a deflection go off somebody's hands and it was intercepted."
Notre Dame took USC to the wire before losing 34-31, and Tedford has studied that effort long and hard. "Notre Dame didn't turn it over (each team had two turnovers)," Tedford said. "And they made big plays at times. Their athletes went up and over some of USC's athletes and they kept pretty good field position." The Irish also had the athletes to match up with USC. "It was a very physical football game, from what I've seen," Tedford said. Unlike USC's other opponents, Notre Dame controlled the clock by rushing the ball. That limited USC to 64 offensive plays. Tedford said to beat USC his team will have to be turnover free, control the clock by piling up some first downs, and will have to make big plays when opportunities present themselves. "Every play is critical," Tedford said. "Last season, we had a quarterback on fire (Aaron Rodgers tied the NCAA record by completing 23 consecutive passes), and we made a lot of plays, but the two plays we didn't make (fumbled punt, bad punt snap) hurt us. This is a tall order." But not an impossible one. "You have to stay calm and not go out there thinking that you are playing the No. 1 team," said Cal senior linebacker Ryan Foltz. "We've played well against them in the past, and that leads itself to us having confidence on Saturday." However, Foltz said he doesn't fault people who say USC has the greatest offense ever. "It's hard to argue against that. They have the potential to score on every play from scrimmage." Cal, which upset USC in 2003, entered the game with a 2-3 record. "We still talk about it all the time," Fredrickson said. "I didn't realize how big a deal it would be. That game has become a classic now. At the time, it was just another win. At the time, nobody knew SC would become SC."
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