Sacramento Bee: The big game: More than just a rivalry game

Stanford needs a win to be bowl-eligible, Cal needs a win to improve its standing.

By Ryan Lillis -- Special To The Bee

BERKELEY - Cal and Stanford are playing for more than neighborhood bragging rights today. The Big Game will also play a big role in both teams' postseason plans.  And while a resurgent Stanford (5-4, 4-3) is one win away from qualifying for its first bowl berth since 2001, Cal has dropped four of five and, depending on what happens around the Pacific-10 Conference in the coming weeks, could be headed toward a less-than-glamorous postseason trip.   On the other hand, a Cal win today nearly assures the Bears (6-4, 3-4) a spot in the Insight Bowl in Phoenix and leaves the Cardinal's bowl hopes in grave danger, especially with a home game against No. 6 Notre Dame looming next week. The bottom line for both teams: win today.  "We're treating it as we need to win this game to go to a bowl," Cal right guard Aaron Merz said. "The alumni and the fans can have their fun around the Big Game, but it's bigger than that." Several things can happen over the next few weeks, but here are the most likely postseason scenarios for the conference's top teams:

* Top-ranked USC finishes the regular season undefeated and heads to the Rose Bowl, the national championship game.

* No. 10 Oregon beats Oregon State today and, at 10-1, heads to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego.

* No. 12 UCLA, with a loss against USC on Dec. 3, finishes third in the Pac-10 and goes to the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.

* Arizona State beats Arizona next week, giving the Sun Devils their sixth win of the season and a likely invitation to the Las Vegas Bowl.

It's a bit more complicated for the local teams. If Cal wins today, it will likely finish fourth in the conference and head to the Insight Bowl on Dec. 27 against the Big East's third-place team, perhaps Louisville. Stanford, meanwhile, would have to beat Notre Dame to become bowl-eligible and head to the postseason, most likely the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco on Dec. 29. However, a Stanford victory over Cal will probably put the Cardinal in the Insight Bowl and send Cal to the Emerald Bowl against the Mountain West's third-place team. Seems clear-cut, right? If only it were that simple. Oregon State could sneak into the mix by beating Oregon. The Beavers would move to 6-5 and could finish as high as a four-way tie for fourth place in the conference (there are no bowl tiebreakers; in cases in which teams finish with identical conference records, it's up to the individual bowl committees who to invite). In some scenarios, seven teams in the conference could finish with six or more wins. The Pac-10 is affiliated with six bowls, meaning Stanford, Cal, Oregon State or Arizona State could head to a bowl with connections to another conference that didn't have enough six-win teams. Possibilities include the EV1.net, New Orleans, Fort Worth and Liberty bowls. Another possibility is no bowl at all. For Cal, ranked as high as 10th earlier in the season, that would be a bitter end. "Our goal was the Rose Bowl," Cal right tackle Ryan O'Callaghan said.