By JON WILNER
If the 108th Big Game is anything like the past six weeks, we're in for quite a doozy. A stunning comeback, a controversial call, an unforgettable play -- something completely unexpected. After all, look what has happened since Oct. 2. Stanford was 1-2, reeling from losses to UC-Davis and Oregon and tumbling toward a 1-10 season. Cal was 5-0, ranked 10th and aiming for a top-tier bowl bid. Now? Talk about crossing patterns. The Cardinal has won four of its last six. The Bears have dropped four of their last five. The Cardinal, on the brink of a bowl bid, is surging into the Big Game. The Bears are backing into it. Stanford (5-4, 4-3) wants the regular season to last forever. Cal (6-4, 3-4) can't wait for it to end.
What happened?
First, Cal was never as good as its ranking. A weak schedule (Sacramento State, Washington, Illinois, New Mexico State and Arizona are a combined 9-42) allowed the Bears to build that gaudy record. Once the competition ramped up, the Bears' triple-whammy of inexperience, poor quarterback play and injuries was too great to overcome.
It's easy to blame everything on quarterback Joe Ayoob, whose performance has fluctuated between mediocre and awful, but he didn't send 10 men out to cover a punt against UCLA or let Oregon State's Yvenson Bernard rush for 194 yards. He didn't drop all those passes at Oregon or punt to Maurice Drew. ''It's always been one play here and one play there,'' Cal center Marvin Philip said. ''That's the theme of the season. You can see the youth of the team. There have been a lot of growing pains.''
Meanwhile, Stanford has played with a resolve it lacked during the Buddy Teevens years. The seniors, weary of losing and desperate for a bowl bid, did not let the team quit on first-year coach Walt Harris. The defensive front has been solid, junior quarterback Trent Edwards has made big plays and the second-tier players have filled in admirably for injured starters. ''The situation back then was going one of two ways,'' nose tackle Babatunde Oshinowo said, referring to Stanford's 1-2 start. ''Either you go into the tank or you rise up. We've learned a lot about ourselves.'' And here they are, bowl-eligible for the first time since 2001 if they beat Cal or Notre Dame. It might be weeks before the Cardinal and Bears finalize their postseason plans, but here's a preview of the bowl possibilities heading into the Big Game.
Best case for Cal: Bears beat Stanford and Arizona State loses to Arizona. As the only second-tier team with seven wins, Cal would land in the Insight Bowl in Phoenix (where it played two years ago). If the Pac-10 sends two teams to the BCS, everyone would move up a spot and the Bears would head to the Sun Bowl.
Worst case for Cal: Bears lose to Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona State win their rivalry games and Cal finishes seventh. Since the Pac-10 only has six bowl slots, the Bears could get shut out. There's also a chance that one of the Texas bowls (Houston or Fort Worth) would have an opening.
Most-likely spot for Cal: Beat Stanford, and it's the Insight or Las Vegas bowls. Lose to Stanford, and it's Vegas or the Emerald Bowl at SBC Park.
Best case for Stanford: Beat Cal to finish alone in fourth place. If the Pac-10 sends two to the BCS, Stanford would head to the Sun. Otherwise, it's the Insight -- possibly against Harris' former team, Pittsburgh -- or Las Vegas.
Worst case for Stanford: Lose to Cal and Notre Dame and go home. If Stanford loses to Cal and beats Notre Dame, it could slip into the Emerald.
Most-likely spot for Stanford: If it's bowl-eligible and ASU beats Arizona... Vegas, baby. If ASU loses, then the Insight.
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