Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Tucson Citizen: Cats will have golden chance for an upset

CORKY SIMPSON

The California Golden Bears look upon the Arizona Wildcats as not-exactly-golden puddy tats.  And rightly so.  Oddsmakers list Cal as a 13 1/2-point favorite for Saturday's Pac-10 football game at Arizona Stadium, but by comparing scores of common opponents, Cal should be a 95-point favorite against UA on Saturday.  Only a demon statistician or far-out fan would likely tally up such stuff, but:

● The Bears are 35 points better than Arizona against Oregon State, having beaten the Beavers by 28 while the Cats lost to the Beavers by seven.

● Against UCLA, Cal is 34 points better than UA (a 14-point win compared to the Cats' 20-point loss).

Cal is 18 points better against Washington.

● And the Bears are eight points stronger against Washington State.  Last Saturday, Arizona upset Washington State 27-17 in Pullman, Wash. Cal thumped the Cougars 21-3 on Oct. 14.

So there you are, Cal by 95 points this week.  But that doesn't count the distraction factor. Cal's entire season comes down to Nov. 18, when the Bears meet USC for the Pac-10 championship, Rose Bowl, bragging rights, recruiting edge and who knows what else?  The Bears are 8-1 overall, having lost their opener at Tennessee 35-18. But everybody loses on the home turf of a Southeast Conference team. Cal is undefeated, on the other hand, in Pacific-10 Conference play, and not even the mighty Trojans can say that. USC lost a couple of weeks ago at Oregon State.  Meanwhile Arizona (4-5, 2-4) is happy just to have a win, never mind style points or margin of victory.  The Cats played possibly their best game in the three years under coach Mike Stoops when they upset the No. 25 Cougars over the weekend. Willie Tuitama returned at quarterback and played well, Stoops rolled out an "I" formation and Chris Henry ran for two touchdowns.  So, no matter how scary this week's frightmare may be, Arizona would like to play that well again and just let the chips fall.  And if Cal is inattentive enough . . .  To quote a line from the movie "Cars," the Golden Bears this week expect to be "happy as a tornado in a trailer park." All the experts, including some people who actually know what they're talking about, forecast a Cal victory about as smooth as baby oil on brass.

But can the Bears win in Arizona Stadium with their minds a week away in the Los Angeles Coliseum?

It will be interesting to see.

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