Oakland Tribune: My unbiased calculator spits out USC by 6

By Dave Del Grande

AS A CAL MAN, I'd love to see the Bears in the Rose Bowl. And as opposed to two seasons ago, when they tried to sneak in the back door, I want them to do it the right way. Beating USC on Saturday would stamp a "WE BELONG" on Cal's invitation.  So am I picking the Bears to beat the Trojans in the prime-time showdown? I know better than to do that.  As a supporter of the role computers play in the college game, I'm going to let some numbers-crunching identify the winner for me.  I've devised two mathematical systems to pick the winner. If they can't agree, I'll be the tiebreaker, and you know what that means.

-System I is designed to answer the question: Has anything really changed since last season — and if so, by how much?  We all remember the Blowout in Berkeley a year ago ... 35-10, and it wasn't that close.  So we start this equation by saying USC was 25 points better than Cal a year ago.  This year, the Trojans have played seven of the same teams they faced last season. The comparison: The 2005 club was, on average, 11 points per game superior.  The Bears have six repeat opponents. The comparison: The 2006 squad is, on average, 4 points per game better.  Calculator please ... 25 minus 11 minus 4 equals 10. The system says: USC remains 10 points better than Cal.  

-System II is a bit more complicated. It asks: Who has fared better against common opponents this season. Fortunately, the schedules this year have been nearly identical. Each has played an SEC power on the road and a decent Midwestern team at home. And six Pac-10 matchups have all been at the same site.  So we throw out Cal's romps over Portland State and UCLA, and dismiss USC's blowout of Stanford, and study the other eight games.  In this formula, I will subtract points allowed from points scored in these common games, multiply the difference times 10, and then add or subtract the difference between yards gained and yards allowed.  USC gets a +1,130 in scoring and +890 in yards.  Cal gets a +990 in scoring and +451 in yards. Calculator please ... 2,020 minus 1,441 divided by 8 equals 72.

The system says: USC is 3 points and 42 yards better than Cal this season.  Sorry, Bears. The numbers say USC by 61/2.  Being a Cal fan, I'll round that down to 6 ... USC, 26-20.