Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Sports Network Picks Cal Over Oregon

Crucial Pac-10 battle pits Golden Bears against Ducks

(Sports Network) - A key Pac-10 tussle will take place in Berkeley this weekend, as the 16th-ranked California Golden Bears play host to the 11th- ranked Oregon Ducks from Memorial Stadium. Both teams sit atop the Pac-10 standings along with USC and Washington with 2-0 league marks. However, the winner of this game will surely have the inside track at upending four-time Pac-10 champion USC for the conference title. Mike Belotti's Ducks have conference wins over Stanford and Arizona State and the 48-13 rout of the Sun Devils last weekend has really solidified this team as a conference powerhouse. Jeff Tedford's Golden Bears dropped their season-opener at Tennessee, but there isn't many teams nationally that have played better since. The Bears have won four straight since that loss, scoring over 40 points in all four victories, including a 41-13 pasting of Oregon State last weekend in Corvallis. California owns a 36-30-2 edge in the all-time series with Oregon, but the Ducks have closed the gap with wins in eight of the last nine meetings overall. Last season saw OU post a thrilling 27-20 overtime victory.

Oregon will have no problem turning this game into a shootout, even though most teams in the country wouldn't against Cal. The Ducks are averaging a hefty 40.2 ppg in 2006, getting great balance between the run and the pass. One of the few teams on the national level to average over 200 yards rushing and passing, OU is netting 227.5 yards per game rushing and 269.5 yards per game passing. The result is nearly 500 yards of total offense per game (497). Junior QB Dennis Dixon has been efficient under center this year, connecting on 65 percent of his passes, en route to 1,032 yards with six TDs and just two interceptions. There is no doubt who he looks to first downfield with huge sophomore Jaison Williams (6-5, 240) abusing secondaries. Williams leads the team in receptions (28), receiving yards (462) and TDs (four) and is averaging 115.5 yards per game. Fellow sophomore Jonathan Stewart is just as lethal with his running, averaging 7.9 yards per carry thus far and pacing the team with 114.2 yards per game. The team has already scored 12 rushing TDs in the first four games, four by Stewart.

With the Oregon offense clicking on cylinders that most teams don't even have, the defense has not had to be top-notch. The Ducks are yielding a generous 20.0 ppg, but in the wide open Pac-10, that isn't bad. Teams have found success running the ball against this team (163.8 ypg) and that is where California could soften this unit up. The pass defense has been much better on the year (145.2 ypg), but again, will be put to the test by the Golden Bears. Junior end Dexter Manley has played sparingly thus far, but does lead the team with three sacks. Senior middle linebacker Blair Phillips currently leads the team in tackles (40), 13 more than the second-leading tackler, sophomore safety Patrick Chung (27 tackles, one sack, one interception). The Oregon defense has managed 12 sacks in the first four games, but just three takeaways. The team must be more opportunistic in the second half of the season to get past the likes of the Golden Bears and Trojans.

California would have no problem turning this game into a track meet, especially in front of the hometown faithful. Tedford's team is averaging 38.4 ppg in 2006 and is also getting it done with a balanced attack. Teams must respect the California ground game, led by All-American Marshawn Lynch. The talented ball carrier has eclipsed 100 yards in four straight games and has rushed for 555 yards on 7.0 yards per carry thus far. His ability to make huge gains on the ground has aided in QB Nate Longshore's maturation under center. Longshore struggled in the season-opener in Knoxville, but has really come full circle since. He is currently completing 67.2 percent of his passes and has amassed 1,221 yards with 14 TDs and just four picks. Wideout DeSean Jackson is one of the most dangerous threats in all of the college ranks. He already has eight TDs this season, seven receiving scores and one on a punt return. Jackson currently paces the team in receptions (27), receiving yards (445) and TDs. He has also caught a TD pass in seven straight games, tying Rice's Jarett Dillard for the longest current streak in the nation. Lavelle Hawkins is a viable second option downfield, with 21 catches, for 357 yards and two TDs.

With an offense getting it done at the pace California is, the defense has a lot of room for error. The Golden Bears' defense is allowing 20.4 ppg this year and has given up large chunks of real estate (370.6 ypg). The rush defense is allowing 4.0 ypc and 143.0 ypg, while the pass defense is giving up 227.6 ypg. Senior cornerback Daymeion Hughes is the crown jewel of the Cal defense. One of the best cover corners in the nation, Hughes is second in the country in interceptions with five. Hughes has 25 total tackles this season and provides Cal with blanket coverage on one side of the field. Desmond Bishop is currently the top tackler on the team (32), followed closely by Brandon Hampton (31). Nu'u Tafisi (10 tackles) leads the team in sacks with three. In all, this defense has made its share of big plays with 12 takeaways and 14 sacks in the first five games.

Oregon has played two straight marquee games against Oklahoma and Arizona State. While they won both, getting up for a third such affair won't be easy. The Golden Bears are playing as well as any team in the country right now and will probably find a way to win a close one at home.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: California 34, Oregon 31

1 comment:

Cal Football Radical said...

WOW! doesn't nate only have three pics?