Newport News Daily Press: National picture incredibly cloudy

Dave Fairbank

So how do you feel about a Cal-South Florida national-championship game?  Cal's DeSean Jackson scooting around the Superdome floor. South Florida's George Selvie all over the Cal offensive backfield. Jeff Tedford and Jim Leavitt matching wits (extra credit if you know which guy coaches which team). Makes you want to reserve a hotel ballroom with the wide screens and open bar right now. Of course, this is all wild speculation, which is what we do around here on slow Mondays following indecipherable college football weekends.  There was Stanford's epic upset of Southern Cal, a top-five underdog against an unranked team, North Carolina up 27-love against Miami at the half, and Virginia Tech with 31 points despite a paltry 98 yards of offense in the first half at Clemson.

In the past two weeks, the Nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10 teams in the weekly Associated Press poll lost. Only a fourth-down lunge in Baton Rouge, La., late Saturday night and a desperation strip by a defensive back in Eugene, Ore., the week before prevented Nos. 1 and 6 from tumbling, as well. This is why the weekly rankings look a bit peculiar and, in the grand scheme, why at this point of the season they're of no greater value than cucumber peelings. Proof that bookies know more than pollsters: a 4-1 Illinois team that had accomplished little was favored at home against unbeaten and No. 5 Wisconsin. Naturally, the Illini won. With so much carnage at the top of the ladder, sitting still can be as beneficial as playing. Cal moved up one spot to No. 2 this week after an idle Saturday, while Oregon vaulted five places to No. 9 simply by staying out of everyone's way.

At this rate, if Kansas can somehow arrange to take off the remainder of October, the Jayhawks will be top-five by Nov. 1. The lesson from the first month of the season is that everyone, save top-ranked LSU, is perceptibly flawed, either in terms of personnel or focus. The Tigers' first half against Tulane suggests that they aren't immune from an occasional case of the apathies, either. The temptation is to pencil LSU into the national championship game, but running the Southeastern Conference gauntlet unbeaten is harder than trigonometry blindfolded. The Tigers also are rapidly approaching the failsafe point where they can overcome a loss and still recover in time to make the national title game.

That's why the imagination races at the possibilities slowly taking shape, never mind that water is likely to find its own level by December. The four teams right behind LSU -- Cal, Ohio State, Boston College and South Florida -- all appear a bit overvalued at this stage. Their rankings are at least as much a product of others' losses as of their own victories.

Regardless of how they got there, though, those teams now control their own fates, as far as the national picture is concerned. Without conference championship games, the Big East, Pac-10 and Big Ten have one fewer obstacle than the other three BCS leagues. Therefore, Cal, Ohio State and South Florida have a small advantage. Cal first must handle prosperity, then Southern Cal on Nov. 10, to prevent yet another Holiday Bowl consolation prize. Third-ranked Ohio State is good in a midwestern, eat-your-vegetables, always-use-your-turn-signal sort of way. Quality defense, runs the ball, few mistakes. But there's the small matter of a season-ending run versus Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan.

Also, the Big Ten's last two ventures into the national spotlight -- Buckeyes-Florida in last year's title game, and Michigan-Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl -- inspire little confidence against programs with an abundance of, as they say here in the South, ath-a-letes. Boston College finishes with consecutive games against Virginia Tech (a Thursday nighter in Blacksburg, no less), Florida State, Maryland, Clemson and Miami. Not easy, but more manageable than, say, five years ago. South Florida still must face Rutgers and Cincinnati, plus the perception that it's as good as its ranking suggests. If and when the folks above them lose, Oklahoma and Southern Cal wait in the wings, provided they play to their ability. Long way to go. And we don't even have BCS rankings to gripe about yet.