By Andrew Kim
Apologies to the linemen, or any other position that labors behind the scenes, but this quarterback story is too good to pass up. Before we begin, it's worth mentioning that Saturday's game offers several enticing non-QB matchups that will largely determine the final score. For one, there's UCLA defensive tackle Brian Price versus Cal center Alex Mack. Then there's Bears wideout Verran Tucker (or insert here any other receiver that steps up) versus Bruins cornerback Alterraun Verner. And last but not least, there's the drama-filled matchup between UCLA wideout Terrence Austin (who as a recruit listed Cal as his "dream school," according to the Torrance Daily Breeze) and Bears corner Syd'Quan Thompson.
Still, at the end of the day, the game may turn into a duel between Kevin Craft and whoever Cal decides to throw under center. That said, if it's Nate Longshore, the anti-Craft, you should know what to expect. Early on, Longshore will probably outshine Craft, make him look silly in his youth, and enter halftime with the Bears holding a sizeable lead. But Cal fans may not feel safe with anything less than a two-possession advantage entering the fourth quarter. It is a bit unfair to categorize Longshore as the guy who loses his cool facing late deficits and, to be fair, his lack of clutch has been exaggerated to a certain extent.
But the facts more or less support the notion. Longshore's resume over the past three seasons includes 12 fourth-quarter interceptions. And in those games, the Bears have a 2-7 record. Last week's pick-to-loss against Arizona is the freshest example, but perhaps the most relevant piece of history documenting the trend occurred a year ago. On Oct. 20, 2007, Cal rolled into the Rose Bowl ranked No. 12 in the nation and led 21-20 entering the fourth quarter. The Bruins flipped the scoreboard on Kai Forbath's 27-yard field goal, and the stage was set for a game-winning drive by Longshore with 3:08 remaining. But two short Justin Forsett runs later, the quarterback was picked by Verner, who took matters into his own hands with a 76-yard touchdown return. UCLA 30, Cal 21-the score would stand as Longshore threw another pick on the subsequent and final drive. The Bruins' third-down back Chane Moline then finished off the Bears with four straight runs and a first down.
As noted above, similar things have happened six other times in Longshore's career. Now, wouldn't it be nearly impossible for the Cal faithful to feel comfortable with, say, a 13-point lead in the third quarter? Against Arizona State, it was the Bears' defense that secured the victory when the offense stalled. But one questionable performance in Tucson later, the 'D' is again an unproven commodity, or more accurately, it faces the need to prove itself again. With Craft manning the opponents' offense, there's legitimate reason for concern. The junior transfer might be shaky early, but two game-winning drives against Tennessee and Stanford speak to a penchant for coming up big in the clutch.
Craft certainly isn't a better overall player than either Longshore or Kevin Riley, but with the Bruins trailing by two scores in the fourth, can't you imagine him picking up a drive at his own 10-yard line, lining up opposite the Cal defensive linemen and muttering, "Why so serious?" It's still safer to pick the Joker to lose, as there's nothing more foolish than siding with a Pac-10 underdog on the road, save Oregon State. Regardless of who is under center for the Bears, they should win at home.
It should be noted, though, that if the score doesn't heavily favor Cal entering the final stanza, and if Longshore doesn't defy his fourth-quarter history, the Bears could be in trouble. Having Riley enter a game trailing in the fourth quarter-like he did last Saturday-makes it tough to expect him to pull a Manny. Cal should let Riley start the game to avoid that situation altogether. A deficit in the fourth plus a cold quarterback spells nothing but defeat for the Bears.
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