By Doug Haller
Please, don't bother with the Pac-10 football standings. They really don't explain much. California's at the top, the only unblemished team in conference play, but the national perception still remains unchanged, as if set in Coliseum stone. Southern California is still the Pac-10 front runner, and everyone else finds themselves, as Oregon State coach Mike Riley put it, "in the middle of a big batch of soup," which is potentially tasty, but also unsettling as the season's second half kicks off. In the past, the Associated Press Top 25 usually is a decent barometer of Pac-10 success. Last year entering Week 7, four teams were represented in the poll. In 2006, three teams were ranked. In 2005, four teams received enough votes.
This season? Only two enjoy Top 25 residency, the fewest at this point in at least six seasons. USC is No. 6, but the Trojans already have vacated the top spot. California broke through for the first time Sunday, debuting at No. 25. What'd the Bears do to crash the poll? Nothing. They were off.
Besides bragging rights, something more important is at stake. For the first time since 2004, the Pac-10 could be in danger of not fielding enough eligible teams for its seven contracted postseason bowls. Already, Washington State and Washington have all but eliminated themselves. At 2-4, UCLA and Arizona State need to win four of six to achieve the six wins required for bowl eligibility.
Several reasons have contributed to this slide. Oregon, Washington, Washington State and UCLA have juggled quarterbacks because of injury; California has done so because of performance. Only five teams - Cal, Oregon, Stanford, USC and Oregon State - have consistently run the ball well. And no one has mastered the art of winning away from home. "Everybody's 'Why's this? Why's that?' (but) has anyone got a good road win this year?" Arizona coach Mike Stoops said on Tuesday's Pac-10 teleconference. "Look at it. We probably have the best one going to UCLA." He's right. Pac-10 teams are 4-12 in road conference games, three of those victories coming against the Washington schools. Overall, Pac-10 teams are 6-20 on the road - Oregon's non-conference win at Purdue the most impressive.
Add it all up, and you get ominous storylines circulating the conference: In San Francisco, a newspaper reporter wonders in print whether Washington State, outscored in four conference games 223-33, is the worst team in Pac-10 history. In Seattle, media and alumni call for Washington coach Ty Willingham's dismissal. In Tempe, two weeks before Halloween, Dennis Erickson announces it's time for ASU to "start over." "We didn't expect to be in this situation, but we are," Erickson said. "Obviously, we have a long ways to go."
The good news: Injuries heal, schedules soften and sometimes the AP pollsters are dolts. If Pac-10 fans want a different perspective, they should check out Jeff Sagarin's ratings. There, four teams - No. 2 USC, No. 15 Cal, No. 17 Oregon State and No. 24 Oregon - are ranked among the Top 25, and another Arizona (37) isn't far off. The Sagarin is one of six computer rankings used in determining the Bowl Championship Series standings, which come out for the first time Sunday.
For now, don't expect a major Pac-10 presence. But as USC coach Pete Carroll points out, much can change in a few weeks. Just look at the national scene. Alabama beats Georgia. Ole Miss upsets Florida. Texas tops Oklahoma. "It's really, really hard and unusual for a team to be undefeated," Carroll said. "It's how you finish that counts."
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