BERKELEY - Cal football coach Jeff Tedford has to take them one game at a time. He has no choice. Looking ahead is likely grounds for Tedford getting thrown out of the coaching fraternity and is surely a violation of section III, paragraph four of the standard coaching contract. Or is it section IV, paragraph three? That's fine. I understand his constraints. I'll look ahead for him. I'll take them nine games at a time as the Bears approach Saturday's Pac-10 opener against Arizona State at Memorial Stadium. Cal's shot at a national title almost certainly died three weeks ago when the Bears imploded 35-18 against Tennessee on the national stage and plunged from No. 9 to No. 22 in the rankings.
But there's that little prize called the Rose Bowl that's still in play for Cal. The Bears haven't played in a Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1959. Call me crazy, but I still like Cal's chances of winning the Pac-10, reaching the Rose Bowl and ending Joe Kapp's self-imposed ban on tequila. The way I have the Pac-10 race handicapped, it all will boil down to Cal's No. 11 game against USC in Los Angeles. More on that later. First, let's look at Cal's overall schedule. Opening the season at Tennessee was no picnic, but Cal can't complain about it's Pac-10 schedule. The Bears play five games at home and four on the road. Their three toughest opponents after USC all come to Memorial Stadium, where the Bears have been very difficult to beat: ASU on Saturday, Oregon on Oct. 7 and UCLA on Nov. 4.
The Bears are eight-point favorites against ASU, and I'd bet -- no pun intended -- they'll be favored in all of their Pac-10 games except USC.
As bitter, painful and embarrassing as Cal's loss to Tennessee was, in a strange way, that defeat might actually help the Bears' bid to win the Pac-10. Cal has been flying well under the radar since that loss. The pressure of being a top-10 team and national championship contender is gone.
USC and now Oregon, in the wake of Saturday's Replay-Gate at Autzen Stadium, are hogging most of the attention. It will be interesting to see how their controversial victory over Oklahoma affects the Ducks. They'll be under the national microscope and dealing with a major distraction for the duration of this season. That can only help the Bears.
Arizona State has been dealing with a bizarre controversy of its own this season.
To recap: ASU coach Dirk Koetter named senior Sam Keller as his starting quarterback, then quickly did an about-face after meeting with a group of his players. Keller was out, Rudy Carpenter was in. Then Keller transferred to Nebraska. Koetter has taken some major heat from Sun Devils Nation for that move, and you'd have to assume that Carpenter is under pressure to justify his coach's decision.
ASU is 3-0, but Carpenter has not played as well as he did last year, when he led the nation in passing efficiency. Last year he threw 17 touchdown passes with just two interceptions. This year he has thrown nine touchdown passes with four interceptions. That's good news for Cal. So are the facts that Tedford is 3-0 against Koetter and Koetter is 0-10 in Pac-10 games ASU has played in the state of California. Two years ago Cal blanked ASU 27-0 at Memorial Stadium. The emergence of Nate Longshore as a solid, competent starting quarterback is huge for Cal. Two weeks ago Longshore threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-17 win over Minnesota, earning Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Week honors. Last week he passed for 225 yards and two scores in the first half of a 42-16 win over Portland State. "He's really doing a nice job," Tedford said Tuesday. "He's been very accurate throwing the ball. "His reads have been very sharp. I'm really pleased with his progress."
Longshore may not be ready to face USC now, but he doesn't have to be. He has seven more games to prepare for that Nov. 18 test in Los Angeles.
USC has another great team this season, but it's clearly not as great as the Trojan teams of the past few years. Running back Reggie Bush and quarterback Matt Leinart, each a Heisman Trophy winner, are gone. So are offensive tackles Winston Justice and Taitusi Lutui, running back LenDale White, defensive end Frostee Rucker, tight end Dominique Byrd, safety Darnell Bing and eight other Trojans who were drafted by NFL teams.
If you're an Old Blue, you have to feel better about a quarterback battle between Longshore and John David Booty than one between Joe Ayoob and Leinart. But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
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