San Jose Mercury: No. 1 USC vs. No. 2 Cal? Could happen

By Jon Wilner

The Pac-10 football universe finally has a reason to root against Louisiana State that doesn't involve Les Miles running his mouth.  If the top-ranked Tigers lose to Florida on Saturday evening, there's a great chance that USC will be No. 1 and Cal will be No. 2 when the Associated Press poll is released Sunday afternoon.  (The Bears haven't been that high in 56 years. The Trojans haven't been that high in a week.) That would create the possibility of a supernova showdown between the top-ranked Trojans and the second-ranked Golden Bears when USC visits Berkeley on Nov. 10. Sure, a lot could happen over the next five Saturdays, the polls don't always break as expected - maybe Ohio State jumps over Cal this weekend - and the only rankings that really matter are the ones at the end of the season. As USC Coach Pete Carroll said, "It's fun for the media and the fans to follow that stuff, but as far as we're concerned it doesn't matter . . . We'll figure all that out about two months from now."

But No. 1 USC vs. No. 2 Cal is enticing enough - and realistic enough - for us non-coaches to address the possibility 38 days before kickoff. Based on a schedule analysis, it's no more outlandish than Oklahoma blowing a 17-point second-half lead at Colorado, Texas losing by 20 at home to Kansas State and five top-10 teams falling in the same week.

(Note: The Pac-10 hasn't occupied the top two spots in the Associated Press poll since USC and  UCLA held the positions for two weeks in October 1967.)  Of the 13 games to be played by LSU, USC and Cal over the next five Saturdays, we're really only talking about seven that will shape the rankings for the second week of November. And LSU has as many tough games over that stretch as Cal and USC combined, starting Saturday against the defending national champions. Sure, the Tigers will be favored in every game they play. They have a high-powered offense and the best defense in the country. But it would be only a mild surprise if Florida went into Death Valley and won. Or if Alabama Coach Nick Saban upset LSU, his former team, in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 3. With that in mind, here's a schedule analysis for the top-three teams. And please note that the term "losable games" refers to matchups against ranked/quality opponents. For example, Arizona is not considered a "losable game" for USC.

• CAL

Non-losable games: Oregon State, Washington State.

Losable games: at UCLA, at No. 18 Arizona State.

Comment: To win in Pasadena and Tempe, the Bears will have to play as well as they did at Oregon, perhaps even better. They have the playmakers to do it but must get healthy on defense and at quarterback. (Nate Longshore has a sprained ankle.)  Cal's biggest problem is that those games come back-to-back, with UCLA first. And that's always an emotional game for the Bears, who have a slew of players from Southern California.

Chance of losing before Nov. 10: Reasonable.

• USC

Non-losable games: Stanford, Arizona, at Notre Dame, Oregon State.

Losable games: at No. 14 Oregon.

Comment: Trojans have overpowered Oregon the past two years, but if they aren't healthy and the weather is foul, then the tangle in Eugene could be trouble. Then again, USC usually plays its best in high-profile games.

Chance of losing before Nov. 10: Slim.

• LSU

Non-losable games: None.

Losable games: No. 9 Florida, at No. 8 Kentucky, Auburn, at Alabama.

Comment: Coming immediately after the Florida showdown, the Tigers' trip to Kentucky could be sneaky-tough. Auburn just won in Gainesville, and you know Saban will have the Tide ready.

Chance of losing before Nov. 10: Reasonable.

There you have it . . . The Trojans probably won't lose, so if Cal can survive at UCLA and Arizona State - and as long as the Bears don't get jumped in the rankings - then the Pac-10's dream matchup Nov. 10 in Berkeley all depends on LSU. The Tigers' schedule turns soft Nov. 10, but it's loaded between now and then.