By Jon Wilner
The first Bowl Championship Series standings will be released Sunday afternoon, and Cal fans might detect the stench of 2004. Remember the Texas two-step? The Longhorns jumped over Cal and into the BCS on the final week of the regular season even though the Bears won and UT didn't play. Sunday, the Bears might not be No. 2 in the BCS standings - even though, with a victory over Oregon State, they'll probably be No. 2 in the polls. This time, the antagonist would be Ohio State, with the Buckeye Bushwhack coming down like this: Cal is No. 2 in both the coaches' poll and the Harris poll, which make up two-thirds of the BCS standings. The average of six computer polls accounts for the other third. And in most of the computers - not all of the data is available yet - Ohio State is ahead of Cal. (In the software operated by Ken Massey, the Bears are No. 8.) Meanwhile, in the human polls, Cal has a slim lead on Ohio State: 17 points in the coaches' and 11 in the Harris. Would that narrow lead offset OSU's projected edge in the computer polls? A few votes either way could be the difference, which means we've reached the style portion of the season. Starting Saturday against Oregon State, the Bears must do more than win. They must look good doing it - something they didn't do in the 2004 finale at Southern Mississippi, precipitating their demise.
The Buckeye Bushwhack outlined above is not intended to alarm Old and Young Blues. With seven weeks left in the season, the competition for No. 2 doesn't much matter (unless OSU runs the table, in which case it might matter quite a bit). But it should serve as a reminder that when it comes to the BCS, make no assumptions. What else should we look for Sunday?
• The fall of Troy.
The most significant development of the entire season could turn out to be the voters' treatment of USC following its shocking loss to Stanford. The Trojans only dropped six spots in the coaches' and Harris polls, from No. 1 to 7, providing them with a perch from which to climb back into the hunt. And don't think they can't. The Trojans are 36-3 under Pete Carroll from Oct. 13 through the end of the regular season. If they're in the BCS top 10, watch out.
• Hawaii vs. the computers.
The Warriors, who visit San Jose State on Friday, are the only outsider with a chance to pull a Boise State. To crash the BCS party, they must finish in the top 12 or be in the top 16 and ahead of a champion from a Big Six conference. Currently, the Warriors are No. 16 in both polls - excellent position for this point in the season. But their BCS ranking could be much lower because of the computers, who aren't impressed with Hawaii's schedule. It's No. 170 in the Sagarin ratings, and there are only 119 teams in Division I-A.
• A Bulls run to the top.
Thanks to victories over Auburn and West Virginia, South Florida is No. 5 in the coaches' poll, No. 6 in the Harris poll and well liked by the computers. Could the Bulls, if they keep winning, finish No. 1 or 2 in the BCS standings? Could they - and not Cal or Ohio State or Oklahoma - end up playing LSU for the national title?
• Is it 2003 all over again?
That year, top-ranked Oklahoma got thrashed in the Big 12 title game but dropped only to No. 3 in the human polls. Because they were No. 1 in the computers, the Sooners were able to sneak into the BCS title game against LSU and bump USC into the Rose Bowl. Controversy and outrage followed. And what do we have this year? Only the potential for LSU, USC and Oklahoma to create more chaos
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