Despite the fact that the collective heart of the University of Oregon's faithful sank in one momentum-shattering moment two weeks ago when the Kellen Clemens' grass-roots Heisman campaign was lost to a broken ankle, hope is not lost in Eugene. Fear not, Ducks fans; the sky has not fallen, and the Ducks still possess plenty of elements toward a winning foundation, even without No. 11 at the helm. Yes, it will hurt to play the remaining games without an experienced senior passer who had already put up unbelievable numbers including 2,406 passing yards and 19 touchdowns to only four interceptions. He is definitely a strong part of the success so far this season for the school currently ranked 13th in both the ESPN/USA Today poll and Bowl Championship Series standings, along with 15th in the Associated Press. Instead of having the luxury of having the Dennis Dixon era beginning in 2006, the future is now. It's time for the 2003 high school Parade All-American and No. 7 quarterback in the nation, according to www.theinsiders.com, to show what he is made of, and whether the Randall Cunningham comparisons are appropriate or not. Dixon has fared pretty well in limited play this year, completing 15-of-20 passes, but he has been picked off twice. On the ground is where Dixon has especially stood out, as he fits Gary Crowton's spread offense to a tee on running the option with 4.5, 40 speed which has equated to 3.9 yards per carry. Crowton will probably dumb down the complicated offense to help Dixon succeed, and playmakers such as Demetrius Williams, Cameron Colvin, James Finley will be called upon to step up and make plays as receivers knowing Clemens won't be in there making it easier on them.
The offensive line will have to both protect Dixon early on and help establish a running game to take pressure off, and it will be important for both Terrence Whitehead and Jonathon Stewart to have big days on the ground. And you better believe the upper-classmen are ready to rally behind their talented (but inexperienced) sophomore, and it will be up to them to pick up the slack and attempt to carry the Ducks further into the BCS picture with three crucial games remaining, and none bigger than the showdown against University of California-Berkeley on Saturday. For whatever reason, Cal (6-2, 3-2 in Pacific 10 Conference play), is ranked 21st in the USA Today poll, and 23rd in both the AP and BCS standings. But closer inspection shows that all six Bear victories have come at the hands of teams with records under .500, including a loss to an Oregon State University team which was beaten at home against the University of Arizona Wildcats last week, 29-27.
Which is not to downplay the talent of the Bears. It is more an indication of what the national voters in these polls think of coach Jeff Tedford, and his ability to field competitive teams. But Tedford's mentor, Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, will be up to the task, and will be ready for anything Tedford can throw at him. Maybe throw is not the right term, because for the first time in a long while, Tedford does not have a talented quarterback at his disposal. And let's face it, junior Joe Ayoob is no Kyle Boller or Aaron Rodgers, he is a junior college transfer who was beaten out in fall camp by redshirt freshman Nate Longshore, and pressed into duty when Longshore broke his leg in Cal's first game. Cal ranks eighth in the Pac-10 in QB passing, while the Ducks defense ranks second in pass defense efficiency, second in sacks and first in interceptions. Which means the Ducks will stack the box to blitz Ayoob, attempt to stuff the run and dare Ayoob to beat them defensively.
And when you mix in the pressure of playing at a packed Autzen Stadium, I would be shocked to see Ayoob succeed if his team's run-game falters. Stopping Cal's running game will be the key to the game for the Ducks, as Cal ranks second in the Pac-10 in rushing at 247 yards per game behind the solid duo of Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett. The running backs are capable of breaking big runs on their own, but their offensive line lead by senior tackle Ryan O'Callaghan makes them even more difficult to contain. It will be a tall order for UO defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and end Devan Long to wreak havoc all game, but if they can hold their ground, plug the lanes, and allow linebackers Anthony Trucks, Blair Phillips and Brent Haberly to roam and make tackles unblocked, then the Ducks should be in business. If they can control Cal's run game, it should make for a successful day for the Ducks secondary, who should be opportunistic toward the erratic Ayoob.
Also, as always, whoever holds the turnover margin will have an advantage, and in the pouring rain at Autzen, holding on to the football will hold particular importance. A final telling statistic in the matchup Saturday is the fact that the Ducks are 10-1 on Saturdays following a bye in the Bellotti era, including nine straight wins ... possibly ten.
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