LA Daily Breeze Predicts Cal Victory

Scouting Report: UCLA vs. Cal

By Jim Thomas

Daily Breeze

The basics

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m., Rose Bowl

Records: No. 20 UCLA is 4-0 overall, 1-0 Pacific-10 Conference; Cal is 5-0, 2-0.

Point spread: UCLA is favored by 1½ points.

Rivalry: UCLA leads the series, 47-27-1, but has done no better than split the last eight meetings. Cal was the better team a year ago, winning in Berkeley, 45-28. This is one of the Bruins' special rivalries, since both schools are part of the UC system.

Coaches: Karl Dorrell is 16-13 in his third year at UCLA. Jeff Tedford is 30-13 in his fourth year at Cal.

What's at stake

UCLA: The Bruins' image took a hit despite beating Washington, 21-17, a week ago at home. If they're going to be a top 20 team this year, they need a much sharper performance in their toughest test of the season to date. A victory would be a huge boost and put them in line to make a run at the Pac-10 title.

California: Even though the Bears are coming off a 10-2 season and are unbeaten, there are still some skeptics out there. Some still believe they are overrated since they have yet to face a top 25 team. They need to win this game to prove themselves and to boost their hopes of a Pac-10 title.

Keys to victory

UCLA: The Bruins must put together a razor-sharp performance 180 degrees removed from that 13-penalty, two-interception, no-run mess against Washington. They also must establish the run against the Bears' solid run defense and they must slow down the Bears' terrific running attack to have a chance to contain their potent offense.

California: The Bears just need to keep doing what they 've done against lesser opponents. If they contain UCLA running back Maurice Drew and continue to free Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch for consistent run gains, they 'll be in great shape. This is quarterback Joe Ayoob's first big test and he must pass it.

Star watch

UCLA: With Justin London back and stopping the run, senior linebacker Spencer Havner hasn't put up the numbers he did a year ago. But he's playing just as well, if not better, with a team-high 34 tackles, including five for losses, an interception and a fumble recovery for a touchdown. Havner's presence could be huge today, considering how balanced the Bears' offense is.

California: Justin Forsett doesn't even start, but at 5-foot-8, 180 pounds, he is a big-play threat who has done a lot of damage in his first five games as a sophomore. He leads the Bears with 585 rushing yards on only 75 carries (for a 7.8 average). He's scored four touchdowns. He's also caught five passes for 64 yards.

Injury report

UCLA: DT Kevin Brown (ankle), OL Tony Lee (knee), S Chris Horton (wrist) and DE Nikola Dragonish (are out). RB Derrick Williams (concussion) is doubtful.

California: QB Nate Longshore (broken fibula) is out for the year. WR Lavelle Hawkins (ankle) is probable.

Key matchups

There are a lot of skilled athletes on both sides of the ball for both teams, but this game could be won in the trenches. UCLA's offensive line has to block better for the run than it has in recent weeks against a defensive line that appears to be one of the best in the Pac-10. DT Brandon Mebane has four sacks. Missing Dragovich and Brown for the season, the Bruins' defensive line must stand its ground against Cal's huge OL, which is 300-plus across the board and averages 322.

Notables

Fact: Cal's 12-game winning streak in regular-season games is third in the country behind USC (26) and Virginia tech (13).

Numbers: Cal ranks sixth in the nation in scoring defense (10.6). UCLA is 10th in scoring offense (42.25) and Cal is 12th (40.2). ... Cal is 21st nationally in rush defense (92.0). UCLA is 25th nationally in passing offense (271.0). UCLA QB Drew Olson is 13th nationally in passing efficiency (160.3). ... Cal's Daymeion Hughes is tied for third nationally with .9 interceptions a game.

Quote: "To me, they 're at least as good as they were last year. There aren't many weaknesses. They 're good in a lot of areas. -- Karl Dorrell, on the Bears

Prediction

The Bruins may face no tougher opponent this year until they finish the season at No. 1 USC. The Bears were considered a BCS-caliber bowl team at the end of last season and there's no sign they 're anything but better despite the loss of quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the NFL. The Bruins, who have lost two starters on the defensive line, will be hard-pressed to stop the Bears and they may find it difficult to sustain long drives as well. California 27, UCLA 20.