Monday, October 24, 2005

SF Chronicle: In Pac-10, quarterbacks are the difference-makers

Jake Curtis

As dazzling as Reggie Bush, Maurice Drew and Marshawn Lynch are, quarterback play determines wins and losses in the Pac-10. The four teams still contending for the Pac-10 title have one major thing in common: USC, UCLA, Oregon and Stanford all have a quarterback in his third season as a starter. None of the other six teams does.  That's why the broken ankle that put Oregon quarterback Kellen Clemens out the rest of the season is so detrimental to the Ducks, and so fortuitous for Cal, which plays Oregon in both teams' next game Nov. 5.  The Pac-10's many big-play backs make life easier for their quarterbacks, but ultimately the guy taking the snap is the difference.  Washington State's Jerome Harrison, the nation's No. 2 rusher, has averaged 191 yards on the ground in WSU's four conference games, and the Cougars have lost all four. Twice this season, Cal's Lynch and Justin Forsett have rushed for more than 100 yards apiece in the same game, and the Bears would have lost both if quarterback Joe Ayoob hadn't sprung to life in the closing moments against Washington State. Lynch and Forsett each broke the century mark in the loss to UCLA. Then, on Saturday night, even though Lynch (who finished with 160 yards) and Forsett (111) both gained a good chunk of their yardage after halftime, Washington State turned a 28-10 halftime deficit into 10-point fourth-quarter lead when Ayoob completed only one of his first 11 second-half passes. Ayoob transformed himself from goat to hero by completing his last five passes, including all four on the two scoring drives in the final six minutes that provided Cal with a 42-38 win that made the Bears bowl eligible.

Experienced quarterbacks make fewer mistakes and seldom miss opportunities. The quarterbacks -- Clemens, USC's Matt Leinart, UCLA's Drew Olson and Stanford's Trent Edwards -- for the four teams atop the standings all have a touchdown-to-interception ratio of better than 3-to-1. None of the conference's other quarterbacks comes close to that, and that includes Arizona State and Cal, which were expected to be USC's toughest challengers despite using quarterbacks in their first full season as starters.  Olson's 21 touchdown passes against three picks gives him a TD-interception difference of plus-18, tied for the best in the nation. Still, it's only slightly better than Clemens' 19 and 4. Edwards has thrown two interceptions this season, none during the Cardinal's three-game winning streak. It's no coincidence Stanford's record is 8-5 over the past two seasons when Edwards starts and plays most of the game and 0-4 when he doesn't.  We're hooked on quarterbacks for this week's four R's:

Relief effort: Dennis Dixon, a sophomore from San Leandro High School, has been named Oregon's starting quarterback against Cal. It means half the Pac-10 teams are starting quarterbacks from the Bay Area, and it also means some anxiety for the Ducks. Clemens, who will have surgery today after Sunday's X-rays confirmed his ankle was broken, had made 32 consecutive starts. Dixon has not started a college game, and despite sustaining a mild concussion Saturday, he's expected to make his first start against Cal.

Relief effort II: Georgia quarterback D.J. Shockley (knee) is not expected to play Saturday against Florida, which means the Bulldogs' national title hopes will rest with Joe Terenski III, a junior who got more playing time the past two seasons as a long snapper for punts than he did as a quarterback.

Running man: After trying to rein in quarterback Brad Smith last season, with dreadful results, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is letting Smith, now a senior, loose again. It paid big dividends on Saturday against Nebraska, which ranked first nationally in rushing defense before Smith became the sixth player in history to rush for more than 200 yards and pass for more than 200 yards in the same game. After rushing for more than 1,000 yards his first two seasons, Smith dipped to 553 yards last season, when Missouri was 5-6. He's the eighth-leading rusher in the nation, at 123.6 yards a game, while completing 64.6 percent of his passes for the Tigers, who are 5-2 and could win the Big 12 North.

Rating: If voting were held today, Olson might deserve to be the All-Pac-10 quarterback instead of Leinart, even though Leinart remains a prime Heisman contender. Olson is ranked fifth nationally in passing efficiency, two spots ahead of Leinart, whose 16-to-5 TD-to-interception ratio is not as good as Olson's 21-to-3. Both head up unbeaten teams, and Olson has led the Bruins to three fourth-quarter comeback victories with less offensive help than Leinart has.

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