SF Chronicle: USC's BCS strategy: Beat Cal severely

Ray Ratto

When Pete Carroll stepped out of character to fume about the Bowl Championship Series, one would like to think the USC coach was sincere - except for two things.  One, when he said he didn't understand it, which is either a self-serving lie or ought to be.  And two, that he was probably sending a message to his players that the loss to Oregon State was a sin the rest of the teams on the Trojans' schedule will have to pay for between now and Coronation Sunday.  Carroll is not just an X-and-O guy, but he is also a players' guy, and he has clearly learned over the last two years that his team can never be allowed to feel comfortable. That's much of the reason the Trojans lost at Corvallis (although Oregon State is far better than the nation recognizes) and is almost the entire reason why they lost at home to Stanford a year ago.

USC must be made to feel what they are - a considerable longshot to get in a BCS game beyond the Rose Bowl - and Carroll knows it. It isn't like he just discovered that the BCS system - six disparate computer systems and two largely mockable polls - is deeply flawed. He chose Tuesday to bitch about the system because, well, because it works against teams in mediocre conferences that lose games they shouldn't lose.

After all, anyone hear Nick Saban complain about the BCS lately? No. Anyone think Joe Paterno understands the BCS? No. But every BCS conference school has someone on staff who does understand it, and they can all do the math in their heads. They know the deal, they know it isn't going to change as long as the presidents have financial and political reasons to maintain the status quo, and their complaining about it is largely pointless scapegoating.  But the players don't know that, at least most don't. They only know what they think they need to do to achieve a seemingly unreachable goal - and in this case, the Trojans think they need to run up as many scores as they can manage.

Which brings us to Cal, a 21-point underdog for Saturday evening's meeting with the biggest dogs in the kennel. Now it's not the point spread that makes this a potential rout; Stanford was twice the underdog last year and beat USC outright. Plus, Cal has a stout enough defense to go stride-by-stride with the Trojans' offense. But USC's defense is, at least by all the measurable rubrics, superior to Jeff Tedford's offense. The one-dimensional attack (Jahvid Best, Shane Vereen and a cloud of FieldTurf pellets), the quarterback questions (this week, it's back to Nate Longshore unless it isn't, which is different from last week when it was Kevin Riley until it wasn't) and the shortfalls at wide receiver and tight end. In other words, this has the makings of a low-scoring game, which is good for Cal. On the other hand, USC needs it to be an epic beatdown for BCS consumption. Playing Cal alone helps the Trojans' profile on the strength-of-schedule side, but pounding the Bears helps more, particularly if:

-- LSU beats Alabama.

-- Florida struggles at Vanderbilt.

-- Penn State screws up at Iowa.

-- Oklahoma has a hard time at Texas A&M.

-- Oklahoma State beats Texas Tech.

-- Texas has as much trouble with Baylor as Missouri.

Those considerations run in descending order of importance, and not even hedge fund managers are so greedy as to imagine all six happening this weekend.  But a fair portion of them could, and USC would be in position to benefit from it all - if the Trojans can beat Cal as they did in 2005, the only year the Tedfordians took a true malice-intended beating from USC. That one was 35-10, and LenDale White gave Reggie Bush the week off and owned the Bears himself. USC also intercepted Joe Ayoob four times and kept Cal out of the end zone until the game nearly ended en route to the Trojans' 22nd consecutive conference win.

Unlike that time, though, this game is at the home of an L.A. school, where Tedford has never won - not against USC or UCLA. Those six games have all been close, more or less - only the 23-9 loss to USC two years ago was by more than a touchdown. But more than a touchdown is the minimal allowance for the Trojans this time. They need not just a win but a lopsided one. It won't make up entirely for their failure at Oregon State, but another close shave with an old blade will consign them to what they now regard as their fallback position - the Rose Bowl. And a loss, far, far worse.

Cal, on the other hand, has to win to stay in the prime bowl picture. No style points, no elegance, no pretty moments for highlight reels. The year the Bears beat USC, 34-31 in overtime, they had already lost to Kansas State, Colorado State and Utah and were en route to losing to Oregon State and UCLA. This is a different circumstance, and Cal is going in with a more modest offense than the '03 model. So if Cal doesn't win and USC doesn't win by a lot, both Carroll and Tedford go home Saturday night unfulfilled. Tedford, because the talent discrepancy showed itself again, and Carroll, because the BCS he disingenuously claims not to understand does all the talking in this sport.