San Jose Mercury: Stanford, Cal both have a lot to lose

Jon Wilner

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There's no question which team has more to gain in the 111th Big Game. A Stanford victory would result in the Cardinal's first bowl appearance since 2001. A Cal victory could be the difference between two mid-level bowl games — the Bears have already clinched a spot in the postseason — or it could be no difference at all.

But which team has more to lose Saturday? Depends on whether you prefer the big picture or the small.

In the short term, Stanford has more to lose. To get this close to the postseason and whiff, just two years after going 1-11, would be deeply disappointing.  But a loss to Cal wouldn't alter the perception, both within the Bay Area and without, that Stanford is a program on the rise. A loss wouldn't change the program's arc, wouldn't affect recruiting — a stellar class is all lined up and waiting for signing day — or hinder fundraising.

But a second consecutive defeat to Stanford, especially at home, would be costly to Cal's reputation and quite possibly its psyche. It would greatly undermine the perception locally that the Bears have the superior program and that Jeff Tedford is the superior coach. It would lay waste to any lasting notion that they have the No. 2 program in the Pac-10. And it would bolster sentiment within league circles — and on recruiting trails — that the program has plateaued.

Hired after the 2001 season, Tedford needed just two years to transform the Bears from gutter dweller into the primary challenger to USC's dominance. The Bears won 10 games and finished second to the Trojans in 2004, and they tied USC for the conference title in 2006. A few months later, worried about overtures from the NFL, Cal gave Tedford a contract extension worth nearly $2 million per season. But the past two years have not gone as Old and Young Blues hoped. Last year, after rising to No. 2 in the nation, Cal was waylaid by a lack of leadership from its upperclassmen and its head coach, who later admitted to being so involved in watching film that he failed to recognize attitude problems. The Bears dropped six of their final seven and finished tied for seventh in the conference ... with Stanford.

This year, the Bears started 4-1 and once again entered fade mode. They've dropped three of their past five, have little chance to reach a top-tier bowl game and, with a loss Saturday, would most likely finish tied for fifth "... with Stanford. But the repercussions would not end there. A loss would deepen their plunge from No. 2 dog to the middle of the Pac: In the past two seasons, Cal has seven league wins — fewer than everyone save Stanford and the Washington schools. A loss would add to their growing reputation as slow finisher: In the past four Novembers, Cal is 4-8. And a loss could impact recruiting: Cal's past four classes have been ranked (in order) Nos. 9, 23, 12 and 32 by scout.com. (This year's group isn't even in the top 50, although it's still very early.) But more than affecting Cal's reputation in the Pac-10 and the Bay Area, a loss could damage Cal's sense of self. The '07 meltdown took a heavy emotional toll on the players and coaches, and they vowed to avoid another collapse.  Although their chemistry is much improved this fall, how would they handle another disappointing season, another losing November and another defeat to a Stanford program they dominated as recently as two years ago?

Asked to describe the Bears' attitude entering the Big Game, senior linebacker Worrell Williams said: "Let's do this right and not make it into last year. Because if we lose the last two, it could be perceived that way."

The Bears are not likely to lose to Washington, and they are nine-point favorites to beat Stanford (and render these 700 words pointless).  A victory Saturday won't remake the Bears into what they were in 2004-06. It won't catapult them past the Oregon schools and back onto USC's tail. But it would go a long way toward stabilizing their reputation.