Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Sports Network Predicts Cal Victory

(10) California (5-0) At (20) U-C-L-A (4-0)

By Frank Haynes, College Football Senior Editor

GAME NOTES: Two of the three remaining undefeated teams in the Pac-10 meet at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena this Saturday, as the 20th-ranked UCLA Bruins play host to the 10th-ranked California Golden Bears. Jeff Tedford's Cal club is 5-0 for the first time in nine years, and a win in this contest will give the Bears their first 6-0 start since the 1950 squad began the year 9-0. California is 2-0 in conference, having topped both Washington (56-17) and Arizona (28-0), serving notice to two-time defending national champion USC that there just may be a challenger for this year's Pac-10 title. The Bears and Trojans meet in Berkeley on November 12th. But first, Cal must get past a UCLA team that slipped past Washington last week at home, 21-17, to pick up its first conference win of the season. The 21 points in that contest were by far the fewest the Bruins had put up thus far, following outbursts of 44, 63 and 41 points in their first three games, respectively. This is the third straight week UCLA is ranked in the Top-25, its longest run since spending 10 weeks among the nationally ranked during the 2001 campaign. The all-time series between these two intrastate rivals leans in favor of the Bruins, 47-27-1, and they have won the last two meetings on their home field. Overall, however, Cal has won two of the last three encounters and four of the last six

Offensively, the Golden Bears rely heavily on the run to batter opponents into submission, churning out 259.4 ypg while scoring 15 rushing TDs (tied for the top mark in the conference with USC). As a result, Cal is putting up an average of 40.2 ppg, an impressive figure to say the least but in the highly- potent Pac-10, one that ranks the club just fifth in scoring. The Bears feature a slew of talented players, including RB Justin Forsett who comes into this weekend's action as the third-ranked back in the conference, averaging 117.0 ypg on the ground. Forsett has scored four times, matching the rushing output of QB Joe Ayoob. Ayoob, a former juco standout, has done a solid if unspectacular job throwing the ball, completing 56.0 percent of his passes for 162.6 ypg with eight TDs against just two INTs. Cal's top targets down the field are Robert Jordan (17 receptions, 268 yards, four TDs) and DeSean Jackson (14 receptions, 190 yards, two TDs). In last week's pasting of Arizona, Ayoob accounted for three TDs (two passing, one rushing), while Marshawn Lynch, who missed a couple of games with a broken finger earlier in the year, scored the other and led all players in the tilt with 107 yards on 20 carries. Forsett finished with 74 yards on 13 totes, and the Bears totaled 331 yards on the day and won the time of possession battle by nearly 10 minutes.

The number one defense in the Pac-10 belongs to Cal, which coming into this contest is allowing just 10.6 points and 288.6 total yards per game. The Golden Bears, who haven't allowed an offensive TD in 10 quarters now, have been particularly strong against the run, giving up only 92.0 ypg on 2.8 ypc, while permitting just two rushing TDs. Their effort against the pass hasn't been quite as dominant, but foes are still averaging just 196.6 ypg to rank the team third in the conference. Last week, the Bears pitched their second straight shutout of Arizona, winning at home by the count of 28-0. Last year, Cal blanked the Wildcats 38-0. The Bears held the 'Cats to just 206 total yards, including a mere 37 on the ground last Saturday. Arizona converted just 5-of-16 third-down tries and went scoreless in two trips inside the Cal 20- yard line. The Bears lead the Pac-10 in red-zone defense, allowing just seven scores in 11 opportunities, only two of which have been TDs. Desmond Bishop, who leads the team and ranks 13th in the league with 38 total stops, paced the Bears with six tackles, while Daymeion Hughes intercepted a pair of passes and is now tied for the Pac-10 lead with four picks. Tim Mixon has Cal's other two INTs this season.

Statistically speaking, the UCLA offense is a middle of the pack squad in the Pac-10, averaging 419.0 total ypg. Not a shabby number by any stretch, but one that ranks the club just seventh in the conference. Still, the Bruins are lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 42.2 ppg, averaging 5.5 TDs per contest along the way. The team has scored 10 TDs on the ground, but is generating more than 270 ypg through the air. Drew Olson has enjoyed a solid season under center for coach Karl Dorrell's squad, hitting the mark on 69.7 percent of his throws for 262.2 ypg with eight TDs and only two INTs. UCLA's top pass catcher is Marcedes Lewis (22 receptions, 296 yards, two TDs). In last week's come-from-behind win over Washington, Olson completed 29-of-44 pass attempts for 287 yards with two TDs and two INTs. The run game accounted for just 65 yards on 25 carries and the team converted only two of its 11 third-down tries. The Bruins have done an especially good job of holding onto the football this year, suffering just two turnovers through the first four games.

The UCLA defense has done a solid job this season, particularly against the pass as foes are allowed just 184.5 ypg, ranking the club second in the conference. From a scoring aspect, the Bruins are permitting just 20.8 ppg with only one TD coming by way of the pass. UCLA is tied with USC for the top turnover margin in the Pac-10, coming in at +7. Despite spotting the Huskies a 10-0 first-half lead, the Bruin defense stood tall in the second half in permitting only one more score. When the dust had settled, Washington had rolled up 401 total yards, doing the bulk of its damage on the ground (213 yards). Spencer Havner led the UCLA stance, logging a game-high 11 tackles, while Marcus Cassel finished with nine. As a team, the Bruins made eight stops behind the line of scrimmage, with Brigham Harwell receiving credit for two TFLs. Havner continues to pace the club with 34 tackles and he has also intercepted a pass and recovered a fumble this season.

One of these teams is going to suffer its first loss of the campaign, but that doesn't mean that squad will be done as far as the Pac-10 title is concerned. There is still plenty of football left to be played, and while it appears as if USC is once again the class of not only the conference, but the college football world in general, one of these two could give the Trojans fits later in the year. That said, Cal is the better team in this matchup and despite playing in a hostile environment, should come out on top in what will be a physical game throughout.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: California 37, UCLA 27

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