Friday, October 07, 2005

Covers.com: Undefeated rivals get first test

For the 5-0 California Bears and the 4-0 UCLA Bruins, football season begins on Saturday.  The first five weeks of the season proved nothing more than the teams’ ability to work a favorable schedule – with a little help from Oklahoma. UCLA defeated an addled Sooners squad 41-24 as 5 ½-point favorites earlier this season.  That game was the lowest spread for either team the first five weeks, with the average opponent being spotted 17 ½ points.  That changed this week, with the Bruins currently 1-point home faves. Not that Cal couldn’t use a little more time. Junior QB Joe Ayoob has yet to grasp the offense, averaging just 162 yards passing per game.  Luckily for Cal, they sport the nation`s seventh ranked run offense. Three running backs have gone over 100 yards already this season and the Bears have had a 100-yard rusher in 17 straight games.  However, the books have followed suit – running all the way to the bank on Bears backers. Despite winning nine of their last ten games straight up, Cal is just 4-5 against the spread. That includes a 2-2 mark this season.  “Oddsmakers are looking at Cal backers having a lot of faith in an 5-0 team,” says Covers Expert Brian Gabrielle, explaining Cal’s respect from the books on the road. “They don’t look at the fact that Cal is 2-2 against the spread, because that isn’t what the public is looking at.”  UCLA hasn’t been much better. Out gained by their opponents in three of four games, the Bruins have still managed a 3-1 mark against the number. This despite the fact that they haven’t won the time of possession battle in any game this season.  “None of that matters,” says Gabrielle. “UCLA is a passing team. Drew Olson completes 70% of his passes, and they don’t turn the ball over. That’s how they win games.  “The ball control problem is due to the fact that they pass it on almost every down. I fully expect Cal to pound it at them and control the clock, but if anything, the Bruins have proved you don’t need to control the clock to win the game.”  The total is set at 59 ½.

 

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