Wednesday, October 05, 2005

CollegeFootballNews.com Picks UCLA Over Cal

Keys to the Big Games

Week Six, Oct. 8

Cal vs. UCLA

By John Harris

a.  Metaphors?!? – Of course, all of you have seen the Tom Brady commercial about the five layers of Visa protection – Metaphors?  Sure, you have.  Well, the five metaphors, errr, linemen in white on Saturday, are certainly one of the best singular units of protection in the nation.  They’ll be a significant factor to this game as they face a UCLA defensive line that doesn’t match up well with them at all.  The Cal OL has helped produce a 100+ yard rusher in each of Cal’s first five games.  Furthermore, this is, essentially, the same line that helped pave the way for a 2,000 yard season for former All-American RB J.J Arrington in 2004.  They’re quick, cohesive and can get movement when they need it.  The Cal backs, Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett, don’t have to dance around in the backfield with this bunch – they know that a hole will develop quickly, so they just have to get there and exploit it.  The key for the Cal line is that there’s no one, relatively speaking, on the UCLA defensive line that creates a massive amount of concern against the run.  Therefore, uncovered linemen can move up to the second level and occupy Bruin LB Spencer Havner and Justin London.  The last thing those two guys want is for Philip, Merz, O’Callaghan, Robertson and/or Smith (in for injured Andrew Cameron) to be in their face as they attempt to track Lynch and Forsett.  Tough day for those linebackers, knowing that the five Bear metaphors will provide protection for the Cal RB duo.

b.  Marcedes SL 560 – The UCLA wide receivers, the healthy ones anyway, don’t seem to present much of a threat to the Cal secondary, on the surface.  However, UCLA has the great equalizer – TE supreme Marcedes Lewis.  The soon-to-be All-American leads the Bruins with 22 catches for 296 yards, a quite impressive 13.5 yard average.  That would seem to be a little high for a tight end, but it probably demonstrates the problems that Cal can and will have with Lewis.  Because he’s so talented, the Bruin offensive staff can use that to their advantage by having him line up in a number of different positions - all in the name of getting Lewis a match up mismatch.  So, how does Cal attempt to cover Lewis?  Great question, but one thing they can do is put a linebacker on him.  WHAT?  A LB?  Well, initially.  That linebacker has to get his hands on Lewis right off the line of scrimmage.  Disrupt the timing of the route from jump.  The problem is that Cal has to take that OLB out of the run defense game plan to do it, and you can’t afford to do that on run/pass downs against UCLA (you think Maurice Drew won’t want to see six in the box?).  So, to counter, Cal can put a corner on him.  Get up in his space and don’t allow him to separate from that CB at all.  Match him stride for stride.  Then, you have a chance.  If Lewis has his hand on the ground, walk the DE out to a ‘jet’ pass rush position and walk the OLB up to the line of scrimmage, a pseudo 46 Bear look, and jam Lewis as hard as possible on the snap.  If it’s pass, his route’s timing is off.  If it’s run, that OLB has created a logjam of bodies on the perimeter.  But, keep in mind, even if Cal can do those things, it might not be enough to slow this big time stud.

c.  The One – It’s important to make a good first impression.  In that case, let’s just say that Cal WR DeSean Jackson has left an indelible imprint on the Cal program.  Jackson might be the most productive and talented true freshmen receiver in the nation.  If he isn’t, it’s a small team picture with PSU’s Derrick Williams and Justin King.  Either way, the Long Beach Poly grad is second on the team with 14 catches for 190 yards, and he has seamlessly moved into the starting lineup.  Alongside fellow starting WR Robert Jordan, Jackson is benefiting from seeing single coverage, for the most part, due in large part to Jordan’s presence and the positive effects of the running game.  Against a UCLA secondary that has been good this season, giving up only 185 yards per game, Jackson is going to get a solid test.  But, that’s the kind of thing that Jackson responds to well.  He’s going to want the football and Jeff Tedford probably has a few tricks up his sleeve to get #1 the ball.  Once he gets the ball, the One knows what to do with it.  Keep an eye on how many different ways Tedford concocts to get the ball to Jackson and what he does with it after the catch/handoff.

Conclusion – The Cal offense, behind Joe Ayoob, is still solid, and as a team, they took Arizona out behind the woodshed, but this UCLA team, similar to say Penn State or Nebraska, has another huge opportunity to let people know that they’re for real.  Critics say that the OU win was more of a result of OU’s poor play and not UCLA’s all-around effort.  But, the Bruins are ready to take the next step, and it’s going to happen behind a defense that must play better against the run.  Don’t expect the Bruins to sit still and play their base defense against Cal’s powerful run game.  They should mix in some run blitz looks and some stunt packages to ensure that Havner and London register double digit tackles, keeping Lynch and Forsett under control.  The Bruins will score, so it’s all on the defense to do their job.  UCLA – 31 vs. Cal – 24

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