Thursday, October 06, 2005

Seattle Post Intelligence Picks Cal by Three

Pac-10 Football: Obviously, Tedford's a genius

By TED MILLER

SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

Jeff Tedford's strength as a coach is he's exactly what he appears to be, plus a whole lot more. What everybody knows about California's coach: He's a quarterbacks guru and passing-game whiz. No doubt about that. He tutored Trent Dilfer and David Carr at Fresno State, Akili Smith and Joey Harrington at Oregon, and Kyle Boller and Aaron Rodgers at Cal.  What is not so obvious: He's trying to win the Pac-10 rushing title for the third consecutive season. Cal, seventh in the nation with 259 yards rushing per game, has produced a 1,000-yard runner during each of Tedford's previous three seasons, including J.J. Arrington's 2,018-yard romp last year. Four different Bears backs have produced 17 consecutive games with at least one 100-yard rusher. Cal has gained more yards on the ground than through the air in all five of its wins.

What everybody knows: He's an outstanding recruiter. Cal is the No. 2 recruiting power on the West Coast behind USC. Tedford even beats the Trojans' Pete Carroll at times -- see the surprising signing of prep All-American receiver DeSean Jackson. What is not so obvious: The guy has a keen eye for talent that is best demonstrated by his bull's-eye percentage in the highly unpredictable arena of junior college recruiting. Here are the JC players who led Cal to a 10-2 finish in 2004: Arrington, Rodgers, defensive end Ryan Riddle, safety Matt Giordano, linebacker Joe Maningo and tight end Garrett Cross. Four of the above were NFL draft picks.  Tedford signed six JC transfers in February. Three are starters and two are seeing significant playing time. Desmond Bishop already might be the best inside linebacker in the Pac-10. Quarterback Joe Ayoob has completed 62 percent of his passes since missing on his first 10.

What everybody knows: Tedford leads an offensive juggernaut.

Forty points and 459 yards per game. 'Nuff said. What is not so obvious: Defensive coordinator Bob Gregory has nearly equaled Tedford's offensive prowess on the mean side of the ball. In 2001, pre-Tedford/Gregory, Cal surrendered 39 points per game. Last year, it ranked eighth in the country, giving up only 16 points per game. Despite losing eight starters from last year, Cal is fifth nationally in scoring defense (10.6 ppg) and hasn't allowed an offensive touchdown in the past 10 quarters. Here's good news for the rest of the Pac-10: Just three of the 22 players on the defense's depth chart are seniors. What everybody knows: Cal players are smart (former players' average score on the NFL's Wonderlic intelligence test ranked third among Division I-A schools, according to a Wall Street Journal Report this week).

What is not so obvious: Cal players kick butt.

Cal is the only program in the nation's top 10 in rushing offense and scoring defense, arguably the best measures of smash-mouth football.

But ...

Bears opponents thus far are a combined 5-19. So the program's first 5-0 start since 1996 should be greeted with a degree of skepticism. That could change this weekend, when No. 10 Cal heads to the Rose Bowl to take on unbeaten, 20th-ranked UCLA. That game combines with No. 25 Oregon's visit to No. 17 Arizona State to potentially organize the four-team gaggle battling for the Pac-10's runner-up position behind top-ranked USC.

There were more than a few people who thought (hoped) Cal might be rebuilding this year, and that Tedford's reputation might take at least a mild hit. Sorry. Tedford and the Bears don't appear to be a one-hit wonder, like, say, Kansas in 1995 or Tulane in 1998. They figure to be the conference favorite in 2006 and dwell among the nation's elite until Tedford opts for a change of scenery.

That's obvious.

STINKING IS GOOD: UCLA took a big step forward against Washington, according to coach Karl Dorrell, because it's important to stink up the joint on occasion and still win. Over the past few years, the Bruins have often been able to do the former without the latter.

Another bonus: quarterback Drew Olson bounced back from a poor first-half performance that included his first two interceptions of the year and led a late comeback. “That was his first (fourth-quarter rally)," Dorrell said. "It was a breakthrough in a number of ways." Off to their best start since 2001, the Bruins need a victory over California if they want to officially announce their return to the nation's elite after six mostly directionless and often underachieving seasons.

Here's the problem: UCLA gave up 213 yards rushing to Washington, and ranks eighth in the Pac-10 in run defense (and just lost another starting defensive lineman in Nikola Dragovic). The Bears, meanwhile, run on everybody. It would help if UCLA's runners could rebound. The Bruins rushed for 83 yards against Oklahoma and 65 yards against Washington. The lack of a ground game and inconsistency at receiver put a lot of pressure on tight end Marcedes Lewis, who had a career-high eight catches against Washington.

If the Huskies can run against UCLA, then Cal should roll

Line: UCLA by 1 1/2; Pick: California, 31-28

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