By Bob Clark
The Register-Guard
Computers tend to be cold, heartless raters of college football teams. Just the facts, please. Things like who beat whom. How difficult is the schedule. And who knows what else, based on some of the discrepancies from those rankings done by machines. So the fact Oregon lost its starting quarterback over the weekend apparently didn't weigh in with the computers, most of which think even more of the Ducks this week than last. That was evident Monday in the release of the latest Bowl Championship Series poll, which has Oregon up to 11th in the nation, boosted by the Ducks having an average rank of ninth from the six computers used in the BCS formula. Two of the computers used by the BCS listed the Ducks seventh in the nation, with another putting Oregon ninth and two others 10th. Oregon was only 25th in the figuring of the sixth computer, but the best and worst of the computer rankings are eliminated before the other four are averaged out for a number that becomes one-third of the BCS rating. The other two-thirds comes evenly between the USA Today poll of coaches and the Harris poll, which each have Oregon ranked 14th nationally, as does The Associated Press. The significance of Oregon's overall ranking is that to be considered for an at-large berth in a BCS bowl, a team must win nine games and be ranked in the top 12 of the BCS poll. Being both of those wouldn't assure Oregon of anything, but it would be possible for the Ducks to dream of a Fiesta Bowl berth. There are all sorts of ifs, of course, for Oregon to be considered for a BCS berth. USC probably must win out and reach the Rose Bowl, where the top two teams in the BCS poll meet Jan. 4 for the national title. It's also mandatory that the Ducks pass unbeaten UCLA, No. 6 this week in the BCS, since only two teams from one league can be in BCS bowls. A loss to USC in the Dec. 3 finale probably won't hurt the Bruins significantly, so the Ducks better be pulling for Stanford, Arizona or Arizona State to knock off UCLA in the coming three weeks.
Now, the most difficult part, if the one thing Oregon can control. The Ducks probably will need to finish 10-1 to remain in the top 12 and even be considered for a BCS berth, which means after a bye this week Oregon must sweep November, a month made up of home games against California (6-2) and Oregon State (4-3) and a visit to Washington State (3-4). "We need to win these next three games one at a time," Oregon coach Mike Bellotti said in previewing Oregon's stretch run. "Every game is winnable, but we will have to play well." The hitch there is that the Ducks will be doing it with a relatively inexperienced quarterback after the loss of Kellen Clemens to a broken leg. Clemens underwent surgery Monday, and the Ducks returned to the practice field without him as the starter for the first time since the end of the 2002 season. Though there is no game Saturday and Oregon will practice only through Thursday, Bellotti said the Ducks will "probably do a little more than we had planned" during workouts this week to increase the preparation for backup quarterbacks Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf, both sophomores. Could a bye have come at a better time for the Ducks? "It's nice to have two weeks, to regather ourselves and get quality (practice) time for the quarterbacks," Bellotti said. Bellotti initially said the offense won't be changed because of the loss of Clemens, but he also acknowledged it might have to be "scaled back somewhat." "Kellen was a three-year starter, Dennis will be a first-game starter," Bellotti said, though offsetting that is the fact "Dennis has been in the program for two years. He's done a nice job when he's gotten into games and been very effective." A hint that the Ducks won't go too far away from what they've done so far this season but with a bent toward the abilities of the quarterbacks may have come in the Arizona game. Dixon was in running options, with the intent of using his speed against the Arizona defense, UO coordinator Gary Crowton said after the game.
"He was just getting a feel for the game" when Dixon suffered a concussion on the series after Clemens was injured. That brought out Leaf, but the Ducks didn't suddenly revert to the T-formation with a full-house backfield and run straight at the Wildcats.
advertisement The Ducks did run on their initial two plays with Leaf in the huddle, but Crowton questioned himself after the game for being "a little bit conservative." On third down of that series, Leaf completed his first pass, which set up a failed field goal attempt.
The next Oregon offensive series started with two incompletions by Leaf followed by an interception, and the Ducks threw on third and fourth down of their subsequent series before turning the football over on downs. Even on Oregon's final possession, which began with 4:43 left and Arizona devoid of timeouts, the Ducks had Leaf throw deep on first down and pass on the next two plays.
"Our offense is designed to take what the defense gives us," Bellotti said. "If they're packed in the box, we're going to throw the ball. We wanted first downs and we felt going at it (with passes) was the way to get first downs." California is likely to dare the Ducks to throw. And the Cougars and Beavers will follow suit, if that works. But Bellotti remains firm in the belief that Dixon can run the entire offense, and Leaf is a capable backup if called upon again. "Dennis has something special," Bellotti said. "And as I've said before, we have weapons across the board in this offensive group." The computers seem to think so, too. Either that, or nobody input the information that Oregon is down a quarterback, with November to go.
OREGON UPDATE
Picked for TV: Oregon's next game, Nov. 5 against California, was selected by ABC for a regional telecast, with the kickoff at Autzen Stadium remaining at 12:30 p.m.
By being chosen for that telecast, Oregon will meet its budgeted estimate of seven appearances on network television this season. The Ducks have already appeared four times on ESPN, FSN, TBS or ABC and their final two games of the season, at Washington State on Nov. 12 and against Oregon State on Nov. 19, have already been selected for telecasts on FSN. The WSU game will kick off at 7:15 p.m. and the Civil War at 3:45 p.m.
Ducks: Oregon's players of the week were receiver Demetrius Williams on offense, linebacker Brent Haberly on defense and the trio of Justin Phinisee, Aaron Gipson and Haloti Ngata on special teams. The Pac-10 players of the week were Stanford's Babatunde Oshinowo for defense and UCLA teammates Drew Olson and kicker Justin Medlock for offense and special teams, respectively
Oregon's scout team players of the week were Ed Dickson, Rory Cavaille and Andiel Brown on offense, Kevin Garrett and Thor Pili for defense and Adam Block and Don Phelps on special teams.
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