Oakland Tribune: The sky is falling, just not in Berkeley

Eric Gillmore

It's hard to blame Cal football fans for feeling as if they've been blindsided this season by the Bears' thermonuclear meltdown.  Who saw this coming? It's been almost all blue skies and sunshine for the Bears since coach Jeff Tedford arrived in 2002 and turned a 1-10 team into a consistent winner.  The Bears went 7-5 in Tedford's first season, 10-2 in 2004 and 10-3 in 2006, when they shared the Pac-10 crown with USC. In Tedford's first five seasons, the Bears were 43-20. Then they started this year 5-0. At 48-20, Tedford was winning at a 70.6 percent clip. But that was before the Bears lost five of six, reminding Old Blues of a few things they probably forgot amid the euphoria of Cal's football resurrection, when "Tedford is God" T-shirts were selling like tie-dye on Telegraph. Just as in the stock market, past performance in college football does not guarantee future results. The sport is rife with parity and volatility. If you're not careful, it's easy to slip up and fall hard, as the Bears have learned. Cal's margin for error wasn't large enough this season to survive a mediocre defense and a nagging ankle injury to quarterback Nate Longshore. Some uber-conservative play calling by Tedford at times didn't help, either. Once the Bears started losing, they lost their confidence, passion and mojo and went into a football death spiral that continued Saturday with a 37-23 loss to Washington. The college football landscape is littered with  once-mighty programs that have crashed.

Nebraska is 5-6 and gave up 76 points this season in a loss to Kansas. Notre Dame is 2-9 with losses to Navy and Air Force and must be wishing it had scheduled the Coast Guard and some ROTC team instead. Miami, Florida State, Alabama, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Penn State and Michigan used to be considered college football royalty. Not one of those teams is ranked among the top 25 in either the BCS standings or the Associated Press poll. There's not much Tedford can do to salvage this season, although a victory in the Big Game next week and in a minor bowl game would at least ease the Bears' pain. Once the season ends, Tedford will begin arguably the toughest and most critical offseason of his Cal career as he tries to get the Bears back on the top-20 track. Tedford's offseason work surely will include an evaluation of every player, every coach -- including himself -- and every aspect of his program. Tedford faces some crucial questions, including whether he should give promising backup quarterback Kevin Riley a real chance in spring practice and summer training camp to unseat Longshore. Hey, why not? If Longshore holds up under that pressure and wins the competition, it will only make him better and tougher. If Riley prevails, then so be it. The future will arrive a year early. After this season at Cal, no starting job should be considered safe.

Tedford also will have to decide whether to shake up his coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Bob Gregory has taken the most heat. But Gregory is coaching a young defense that lost tackle Brandon Mebane, cornerback Daymeion Hughes and middle linebacker Desmond Bishop to the NFL. Gregory might want to tweak his bend-but-don't-break approach and get more aggressive, but his body of work at Cal has been solid enough to keep his job. In the past four seasons, the Bears ranked fourth, third, first and third in scoring defense in the Pac-10. It may seem like the sky is falling at Cal, but there are still reasons for optimism. Cal's cupboard is far from bare, and the football talent pipeline leading to Berkeley is still wide open. Cal's recruiting classes, according to scout.com, ranked 12th this year, 23rd last year, ninth in 2005 and 29th in 2004. Based on oral commitments to date, Cal's projected recruiting class of 2008 ranks 26th. Compare that to Tedford's first recruiting class in 2002 when the Bears were No. 62 in the nation.  Next year, speedy running back Jahvid Best will move into the starting lineup, giving the Bears a true home run threat in the backfield. Three of five starters on Cal's solid offensive line should return, assuming center Alex Mack doesn't jump early to the NFL. The Bears will boast two solid quarterbacks. And who knows? Maybe junior wide receiver DeSean Jackson will decide to return for his final season and build a better resume for NFL scouts. On defense, 10 starters, counting injured end Rulon Davis, will return. A year's experience alone should make them better. And you can bet some new faces will dot the starting lineup. After this season, the Bears will be ravenous again. Overconfidence certainly won't be a problem because they'll realize that winning, especially in an ever-improving Pac-10, is not a birthright in Berkeley, even during the Tedford era.