Michigan State preview
Mark Dantonio improved Michigan State in his first season at the helm, but the Spartans continued their habit of losing close games. All 6 of MSU’s losses in 2007 were by 7 points or less and the Spartans were 2-6 in close games, including 2 overtime losses. Had the Spartans gone 4-4 in those close games they would have been 9-4 instead of 7-6 – so there is potential for a good season in East Lansing.
The Spartans’ attack will be led by steady quarterback Brian Hoyer, who was 0.5 yards per pass play better than average (6.3 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB, yppp includes sacks) and threw just 11 interceptions. Hoyer should be a better quarterback, but his numbers may go down without TE Kellen Davis, who averaged 16.0 yards on his 32 catches and was #2 on the team in receiving yards. Top receiver Devin Thomas left early for the NFL (2nd round pick), but there are plenty of receivers with talent on the roster to fill that void. After all, nothing was expected of Thomas before the start of last season, so it’s likely one of the talented youngsters will step up like he did. Replacing a tight end that averages 16 yards per catch is not so easy and there are no obvious replacements in sight, so Hoyer will not have the luxury of a big target over the middle to throw to this season. I still expect the pass attack to be better than average and for RB Javon Ringer to have another brilliant season (he has 2761 career yards at an incredible 6.1 ypr), so the Spartans attack should be close to as good as it was last season (5.6 yards per play against a schedule that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average Division 1A team).
Michigan State’s defense was mediocre last season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense), but that unit dealt with a lot of injuries and should be better in the second season of the defensive system. The Spartans do lose two impact defensive linemen in Jonal Saint-Dic (10 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss) and Ervin Baldwin (8.5 sacks and 10 TFL), but Cincinnati transfer Trevor Anderson looks like he’ll be better than Saint-Dic, and a talented group of young (and fast) linebackers should provide enough big plays to make up for the loss of Baldwin. The secondary should be better with a talented Otis Wiley having found a home at strong safety late last season and with a group of solid corners in Davis-Clark, Weaver, and Rucker. My returning statistics model calls for another mediocre defense, but the talent level on defense is higher and the Spartans are likely to be healthier this season. I’ll call for a better defensive rating this season despite the losses up front. Special teams is where Devin Thomas will surely be missed after he averaged 29.1 yards per kick return last season. It will be tough to duplicate those numbers, but the punt return team should be better after ranking near the bottom last season and punter Aaron Bates should improve as a sophomore. Kicker Brett Swenson followed a very good freshman season with a sub-par second year and I expect him to be better this season too. Overall, the Spartans look decent in special teams this season.
Michigan State is a team on the rise under coach Mark Dantonio, but they are still a middle of the pack Big 10 team unless the defense really improves. The Spartans should have better luck in close games, but I still see another 7-5 season coming.
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