Monday, December 22, 2008

Sacramento Bee: UC Berkeley economists playing key role in new administration

(Nothing to do with football, but I thought this would be interesting to most cal alumni.)

By Dale Kasler

Link.

Sure, there's a recession, but the arrows are pointing up for economists at the University of California, Berkeley.  Christina Romer, a professor here since 1988 and an expert on the Depression, was named by President-elect Barack Obama to chair the White House Council of Economic Advisers. She follows her colleague Laura Tyson, who held the post in the Clinton White House, and becomes the latest economist from Berkeley to snare a top job in a Democratic administration. Tyson and another Berkeley professor, Bill Clinton's labor secretary Robert Reich, are advising the Obama transition, and speculation is growing about others who might head to Washington.  Berkeley could be "losing our professors to the administration at an astonishing rate," said economist Brad DeLong, who was Clinton's deputy assistant treasury secretary. More than that, Romer's appointment is seen as validation of a Berkeley school of thought that says government shouldn't shrink from fixing the economy. That meshes with Obama's call for huge public works spending to create jobs.

"If Berkeley brings anything to Washington, it's that there are times when the government must intervene in the economy," said graduate student Jonathan Rose, who has studied under Romer. Berkeley's influence extends to other fields. Nobel Prize-winning physicist Steven Chu, director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, is Obama's nominee for energy secretary. But much of the buzz is about economics, and there's some satisfaction that Berkeley-esque ideas seem to be gaining at the expense of the "Chicago School" – the free-market ideas of the late Milton Friedman and others at the University of Chicago that dominated Washington for much of the past generation. "There's always been an anti-Chicago school," DeLong said. "I wouldn't say it's clustered around Berkeley specifically, but we're certainly in there pitching."

Some here don't see Berkeley as a "school," with an overarching philosophy. Rather, they see Berkeley as a collection of realists who simply adjust to the times. Nowadays, that means government activism, which is becoming increasingly mainstream as the recession deepens.  "Notwithstanding Berkeley's reputation as being a hotbed of liberal or lefty activism … the faculty here who are involved in economics or economic policy are quite pragmatic," said Reich, a professor at the public policy school. "Government, regardless of one's ideology, has got to play a major role in getting us out of this mess." The lines indeed have blurred between right and left, between Chicago and Berkeley. Obama's longtime economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, is a professor at the University of Chicago's business school and a free-trade centrist. Obama taught at Chicago's law school. "There are lots of people at Chicago that Berkeley would like to hire, and there are lots of people at Berkeley that Chicago would like to hire," said Chang-Tai Hsieh, who researched the Depression with Romer at Berkeley and now is an economist at Chicago. Still, there's an obvious kinship between Berkeley and Democratic administrations, prompting some conservatives to warn of excessive government control over the economy.

"The idea that a handful of people who went to Harvard – or Berkeley, now – know better than 300 million Americans … is fundamentally elitist," said conservative icon Grover Norquist. Obama attended Harvard Law School. Many here say Romer, and whoever follows her to Washington, D.C., will be more aggressive than the Bush administration about the recession. "(Current Treasury Secretary) Henry Paulson's made a bunch of mistakes in the past six months by not being activist enough," DeLong said. "She won't make that mistake."

Romer, who turns 50 on Christmas Day, isn't giving interviews. Around the economics department on campus here, the only hint of her new fame is an unsigned congratulatory note, printed out on a white sheet of paper and pinned to her door. Her research papers show a belief in actively using budget and monetary policy to spur economic growth. She is a scholar of the Depression, a specialty she shares with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and has written papers saying the government erred by not pumping more money into the system in the 1930s. Romer and Bernanke "share that view, that it was a big mistake," Tyson said. "That took it from a stock market crash and a recession into a global Depression." Romer's appointment has created excitement on campus. Recently, at the economics department's weekly reception – a casual affair in a bare-bones room, with an Australian shepherd wandering about largely unnoticed – students munched on cookies while talking about exams, research papers and the gossip about who else might go to Washington. Reich's name surfaced, although he said in an interview that he's probably staying put. The same with Tyson. Another possibility was budget expert Alan Auerbach ("News to me," he said in an interview). The only obvious departure is Romer's husband, David, also an economist here. "We're a little concerned about filling openings," said graduate student Mike Urbancic. "Things are going to be a little thin."

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

You cannot fix a broken damn with more water.

The 'stimulus' will do nothing to stop deflation. Anyone joining the Obama administration will be framed in a very poor light in the history books of our grand children.

Deficit spending in an attempt to stop deflation will go down as a worse blunder than the housing bubble.

Joe Bloggs said...

I'm excited about Steven Chu's appointment as Energy secretary. I hope that just as Obama had promised, new energy policy will help lead us out of this depression with new jobs and new technology that also will wean us off of foreign oil!

Anonymous said...

nice post

Anonymous said...

Hope can't stop deflation and 3 million jobs added by Obama's spending will offset the 10 million we will have lost by then.

Conservation is the only viable alternative energy source. The free market will remain uninvolved until demand destruction ends and energy prices rise to new highs which we will not have to worry about for at least five years.

Anonymous said...

JT. the so called housing blunder was not a blunder at all, but was brought about by pure greed, by everyone along the way, and expounded by the current executive administration. You can fix a broken dam by carefully using engineering skills to repair the problem and then most importantly watching closely the dam to make sure if any leaks occur they are delt with promptly, unlike the last eight years where little was done to stop them.

As far as conservaion, tell that to China & India which has ten times the population we have!

Joe Bloggs said...

your right that China and India will have to learn to curb their appetite for resources given their gargantuan populations. However, at the moment U.S. is still the largest consumer of nearly everything even with our smaller population.

You can see how dramatic the effect of decrease demand for oil has done to the price at the pump. We really have to force the auto companies to switch to alternative fuels and energy technology as fast as possible. In the meantime we need to upgrade our energy infrastructure to plan for the future when gas prices go up to $4.00/gallon. We should tax the hell out of oil and coal to keep other new energy technologies viable. Also, let the oil companies drill in the outer continental shell but at the current price of crude, they will probably not pursue those avenues since it's not cost effective.

Lastly, we need to stop subsidizing corn based ethanol. The way corn is produced is polluting our water ways and jacking up food prices. We need to push for other viable high cellulosic ethanol sources that does not require high amounts of fossil fuel based fertilizer such as switchblade grass.

I just hope and pray that Obama delivers on his promise of new, comprehensive energy plan that will transform the economy.

Let's not waste billions propping up the big 3 auto makers. Let them restructure through a regulated chapter 11 and let the unions DIE. They are the one's killing our auto companies!

Anonymous said...

China and India will be in worse shape than the US as they grew from greed.

The damn cannot be fixed while it is failing. The water must be let out. The poster that replied to my last entry is definitely not an engineer even by a magnificent stretch of the imagination. Adding more water will make the failure more catastrophic.

I predicted the housing bubble, Bear Sterns, Lehman, etc. to friends, family and colleagues. Most laughed and labeled me as a pessimist or and Eeyore. Hope is the worst policy when it comes to your household finances.

This fiasco started when Fannie and Freddie were created. Each and every administration since the Great Depression contributed to the Depression 2.0 without exception (yes, Clinton did contribute more than most).

The free market will decide what affordable housing is not the government because Fannie and Freddie have the biggest drivers of house price inflation.

A house is standard of living choice and a good place to live. A house is not an investment. Just like a Mercedes, BMW, and Audi are also nice cars to drive but they are not investments.

Think with an open mind as this has nothing to do with party politics. DC is busy robbing our Treasury while pitting us against each other like it was NFL Sunday and the Righties are playing the Lefties. Stop allowing yourself to be distracted from the overall big picture.

Joe Bloggs said...

JT, please stop misspelling "dam" which is a man made structure to obstruct running water with the word "damn" which is used as a verb: "i damn you to hell".

I agree with you that conservation is key but only one piece of the puzzle.