Contra Costa Times: With coaches staying, QBs are on hot seat

Eric Gilmore

Losing or underachieving football teams often choose one of the two paths after examining the wreckage of a rough season.

1) Fire the coach.

2) Choose a new starting quarterback.

The 49ers, Raiders, Cal and Stanford all struggled this season but bypassed option No. 1.

The 49ers' Mike Nolan, the Raiders' Lane Kiffin, Cal's Jeff Tedford and Stanford's Jim Harbaugh all survived, and of the four, only Nolan was in real jeopardy of a pink slip.  So that brings us to option No. 2 and this question: What are the odds that at least three and maybe all four of those teams will have new starting quarterbacks next season?  Let's just say they're almost as good as the odds that A's general manager Billy Beane will make another trade in his lifetime.

You don't need to call the football psychic hotline to predict a quarterback change for the Raiders. Kiffin has already anointed JaMarcus Russell as his starter for 2008.  So that's one down. Let's turn to the other three teams and guesstimate the chance each of them has of making a quarterback switch:

CAL: 90 percent

Incumbent starter Nate Longshore will try to hold off up-and-coming Kevin Riley. But after Riley's near flawless performance at the Armed Forces Bowl, this is really his job to lose.  Riley came off the bench with Cal trailing Air Force 21-0 and led the Bears to a 42-36 win, earning MVP honors. He flirted with perfection. He completed 16 of 19 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. He ran for a score.

Even before the game, Cal coach Jeff Tedford had said the quarterback job would be wide open at spring practice.  Not that it probably matters to Tedford, but he might have a fan revolt if Riley isn't the starter Aug. 30 when the Bears open the 2008 season at home against Michigan State.

Plenty of Old Blues are furious at Tedford for not making the switch at quarterback months ago when Longshore was hobbling on a sore ankle and Cal's promising season was going down the drain.  Loyalty and consistency are laudable, to a point. But in this case, Tedford needed to make a bold move and switch quarterbacks. He surely realizes that now.  Longshore has the edge in experience. He has a big arm. And he led the Bears to five straight wins to open the season before being injured. So you have to give him a puncher's chance of winning this fight.  But Riley has an equally strong and maybe even more accurate arm. He's also a much more mobile quarterback than Longshore. And in his brief action this season, he proved to be a confident, charismatic leader.

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