San Jose Mercury: A once-in-a-lifetime Cal season? Could be, could be (I did the math)

Here is the link.

 

By Tim Kawakami

I thought it was a long time. I knew it wasn’t in my lifetime. Then I hit the media guides: Hmm, when was the last time Cal went undefeated into November?  No Jeff Tedford team has done it.  The latest a Tedford team has been undefeated is 2005, when the Bears started 5-0 with an easy schedule and then lost on Oct. 8 at UCLA. (The great 2004 team started 3-0 but then lost at No. 1 USC on Oct. 9.)  Not Bruce Snyder’s last team, which started 1991 at 5-0, but lost to Washington on Oct. 19.  Not Steve Mariucci’s only team, which started 1996 at 5-0, but lost at Washington State on Oct. 19.  Not even the last Rose Bowl team, which started 1958 with two losses before rallying to earn the Pasadena trip in January 1959, or the 1952 team, which started 5-0 but lost on Oct. 25 at USC.

The last Cal team to go undefeated into November: 1950! Pappy Waldorf’s team started 9-0, tied Stanford on Nov. 25, and lost to Michigan in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1, 1951.

That, folks, is the very definition of a looo-oong time.  It could happen this year. There are signs that it might happen–Cal got past a tough early game (Tennessee), which it couldn’t do last year or in many other years. Cal got past a trap game at Colorado State on Saturday. And now there are a few easy ones before…  The gauntlet starts in a few weeks, and, by the Pac-10’s strong early results, could be practically a single-elimination all-undefeated conference playoff.  And, for good or bad, thanks to the schedule, Cal is uniquely set up to play the best series of conference games since the 1980s, when USC, Washington and UCLA were all banging around the top five.  (Why Cal? It faces the weaker possible undefeateds–Oregon and Arizona State–relatively early, so Cal is most likely to remain undefeated, then gets Monster USC in mid-November. That is the gauntlet perfectly set up.)

By the way, I’m not saying it’s going to happen for the Bears. Undefeated Cal teams–for any length of time–are a rare, rare thing.  But there’s a shot. At least as good a shot as DeSean Jackson has at the Heisman (which, Wilmer points out, is possible, and that makes it official).  Cal’s 2-0, and will get to 4-0 after home games against Louisiana Tech this Saturday and Arizona on Sept. 22. Then the mini-playoffs begin…

* There’s Sept. 29 at Oregon (which just destroyed Michigan and should be 4-0, just like Cal, at this point) and Oct. 13 at home vs. Tedford Nemesis Oregon State (which just got drilled by Cincinnati). BIG GAMES.

* If Cal gets through that undefeated, there’s a big one Oct. 20 at UCLA, which looks like it might have its best team in 10 or more years.  This could be a duel of double-undefeateds, since both Cal and UCLA could or should be 6-0 and ranked in the top 7 or 8 at that point. HUGE GAME.  (According to my research, Cal and UCLA have never played a game in which they were both top-10 ranked coming in.  (In fact, in its entire history, Cal has only played six such games, no matter the opponent:

–1952 when No. 4 Cal lost to No. 7 USC;

–1951 when No. 9 Cal beat No. 6 Oregon State;

–the 1951 Rose Bowl when No. 9 Michigan beat No. 5 Cal;

–the 1950 Rose Bowl when No. 6 Ohio State beat No. 3 Cal;

–the 1949 Rose Bowl when No. 7 Northwestern beat No. 4 Cal;

–and in 1949, when No. 10 USC beat No. 4 Cal. Wow. That’s a lot of research, and I know I missed one in there. Just let me know when you find it.)

* There’s Oct. 27 at Arizona State, which could share a 7-0 with Cal by then. BIG GAME.

I’m not saying Dennis Erickson has immediately made ASU a team to be feared. But with two trouncing victories already and an easy early schedule–the only trip-wire are games at Wash St and hosting Washington in consecutive weeks before the Sun Devils get a bye, then they play Cal–this becomes a live one.  Even if ASU stumbles, they’ll likely be 6-1 or 5-2, with a bye before the game, and licking their chops at home for Cal.

-And of course, there’s Nov. 10. The ultimate showdown, if Cal remains undefeated through November for the first time in 57 years.  Their reward: USC at Memorial Stadium, with national-title and Rose Bowl implications all over it. That’s a good reward, if the Bears get there. Cal might be 9-0 and ranked no lower than 4th or 5th (behind USC, LSU, Oklahoma and possibly West Virginia). Mathematically, if you lay out all the games in front of the Bears, I’d say Cal has a 40% shot at being 9-0 to that point. OK, maybe 30%.

Those are better odds than you would’ve given Florida at the start of the season to win the national title last year, no?  Knowing the Trojans, they’ll be 9-0 and still ranked No. 1 at that point. Probably 70% chance of that.

And there you go: If things work out right, Cal vs. USC on Nov. 10, both undefeated. That would be a half-century kind of game. There’s a lot standing in Cal’s way (and some games standing in USC’s way, too, starting with Saturday at Nebraska). But 9-0 USC vs. 9-0 Cal… now that would be something to see, truly a once-in-a-lifetime event. Of course, if Tyrone Willingham keeps doing magic in Seattle, Cal could beat USC and still have trouble in Washington the next week. But that’s another lifetime.